When you’ve been away from something for a long time, you tend to approach it again with a certain apprehension that perhaps, unlike a bicycle, it’s not as easy to ride again. Writing is really no different. Or at least I think so as I'm sitting here with the proverbial writer’s block towering above me like a slab of stone worthy of a Giza pyramid.
That’s when jumping right in and writing whatever comes to mind becomes the clearest solution.
A lot has happened in the sports world since I last signed off, early in the last NFL season (including the litigious wake of a collective bargaining agreement that turns out is as elusive as the fountain of youth and that has already resulted in a lockout and a decertification of the players’ union... but that's for another time).
I’ve grown restless and my fingers hurt. And what better way to knock off the rust than with my trusty (dusty) playoff prognosticator?
The NBA playoffs are around the corner but first things first; the NHL playoffs are set to tee off tomorrow. This is usually around the time the whole thing is usually knocked onto its head. And I’m here to tell you how!
Western Conference
#8 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #1 Vancouver Canucks
At first glance, a non-discerning eye won’t notice how much of a trap matchup this is for the top seed. The Hawks barely snuck in, needing a flustering meltdown by the Dallas Stars to qualify. On the other hand, the Canucks are practically wire to wire finishers with a meaty 117 point season.
Despite Vancouver's regular season success, the Blackhawks have something the Canucks lack and that is the swagger of experience especially being the defending champs. In fact, I’m going to go as far as to say that the Hawks are likely to come out of this round after a gruesome full tilt 6-gamer or 7-gamer… bruised and lacerated. Remember also that it was these same Blackhawks that ousted the Canucks the last two seasons as well so while one can see the proverbial monkey on the back being possibly removed this spring, one can also see how the Canucks can fold under the psychological pressure that the defending champs will certainly bring.
The Blackhawks have a very balanced offensive attack with a lot of its firepower coming from the point but with enough big, talented bodies down around the crease to give even a goalie of Roberto Luongo's caliber a little bit of trouble. Goaltending is a concern for Chicago again (unless Crawford pulls a Niemi) as well as overall defense (another area that Vancouver is vastly superior) but I give a bold edge to the defending champs to pull the 1st round 8 over 1 upset.
Blackhawks in 7
#7 Los Angeles Kings vs. #2 San Jose Sharks
A good ol’ Pacific division rivalry in the 1st round and were it not for the laundry list of injuries on the front end for LA, I’d call another long shot upset. The Sharks are too good offensively, have a suddenly very effective Antii Niemi (guess last postseason wasn’t a fluke huh?) and if they get on the power play, goodnight.
The Kings are a team on the rise and, with a full cast, are exciting to watch but being a defensive team with injuries up front is too inviting for a turtle effect and especially against a team like the Sharks that led the league in shots per game, that also spells for long, long games for Jonathan Quick and company.
The Kings are tough as nails on the blue line, have great goaltending and will give the Sharks and their big three, Marleau, Thornton and Heatley all they can handle but one has to wonder how long you can hang in a 7 game series relying only on timely scoring and out of this world defense.
Sharks in 5
#6 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #3 Detroit Redwings
The Wings and Coyotes teed up for one hell of a series last year, one so taxing and intense that it all but drained the Wings going into their matchup with the Sharks that they eventually would lose.
The current loss of Zetterberg can complicate things for the Wings offensively but only in terms of puck possession; there are enough scorers on every line that getting goals from other sources such as Bertuzzi, Holmstrom or Cleary shouldn’t be a problem. However, the Wings live and die with their ability to possess and control the puck throughout a contest. If they do this, they win.
This is not to discredit or devalue the Yotes. After all, they have a hot goalie in Bryz and a consistent, albeit star-less attack on offense and a serviceable defense and took these same Wings to the brink last year before being bounced 6-1 in the final contest. They are a mediocre team on paper but their homogeneity make them deceptively so; they are actually quite active and with consistent play from leaders such as Vrbata and Yandle, they can steal one.
That said, the Wings are too veteran savvy and have playoff monster performers such as Franzen who can go off for bunches-o-goals. Howard has been much better than he gets credit for and Lidstrom might play until he’s 80. Wings should be able to survive the first round and get Zetterberg in time for round 2 which would spell trouble for the rest of the Western Conference field. [/bias]
Wings in 6
#5 Nashville Predators vs. #4 Anaheim Ducks
Offense over defense? The Ducks and Preds couldn’t possibly be more different. The Ducks will skate and score, the Preds will hunker down and grind out defensive clinics. Who will win?
The Ducks come in with the league’s top scorer in Corey Perry who had a monster 2nd half and comes into the playoffs as hot as any other pure scorer in the NHL. The Ducks offense doesn’t stop there, of course,with the likes of Ryan, Getzlaf and Selanne but past that is a roster full of hard checking grinders and middle of the pack defenders.
The Preds may not have the scoring but they have gritty, tough defenders like Weber and Suter and possibly one of the top netminders in the world in Pekka Rinne.
Look for the Ducks to try and jump on the Preds early and keep them and their unintimidating offense at bay. If the Preds can consistently get early leads, they’ll be the team to move forward. I don’t see them having enough firepower to outlast Anaheim unless Pekka Rinne can get hot and steal one. With home ice in the OC, count the Ducks moving forward.
Ducks in 6
Eastern Conference
#8 New York Rangers vs. #1 Washington Capitals
You know what’s scary for the Caps? The last three meetings between these two have resulted in a 15-1 goals edge for the Rangers. That doesn’t bode well for a team that has great scoring (albeit not as elite as it was a year ago) but shaky, questionable, platoon goaltending.
That said, the Rangers really don’t have much punch and at least not enough to make a deep run in the playoffs or even this round. They’re missing Ryan Callahan, have a not so 100% Marian Gaborik (then again when is he ever) and a slew of role scorers who will try to match goals with the likes of Ovie, Semin and Backstrom. The Rangers are a defensive team with young studs like Staal and Girardi on the blue line who will have to play out of their heads to keep the Caps off the score sheet. And of course there’s Lundqvist and he’s as good as it gets between the pipes.
The Caps were stunned pretty hard by the Habs last year but that team was vibing at the right time and took their Cinderella run all the way until midnight struck in Philly. I don’t see the Rangers with a similar run or a similar vibe making it, as tempting as it is, difficult to call them for the upset here. The Caps should be able to get out of this round without too much incident.
Capitals in 6
#7 Buffalo Sabres vs. #2 Philadelphia Flyers
Well, here are two teams doing two totally different things right now. The Sabres are winning games pretty frequently and the Flyers are bumbling down the stretch playing .500 hockey. So what to make of it?
The Flyers have much to be optimistic about regardless of the last several weeks of their season. After all, they have nearly a dozen capable scorers (and by capable we mean very good) and possibly the best defense in the Eastern Conference playoff field. Their real questions lie between the pipes (again) with no clear cut netminder and no really comforting or encouraging option. They’ve struggled to win games as of late due to shoddy overall play but come playoff time, I’m not counting against them to make another deep run if not repeat as Eastern champs.
The Sabres have looked really good the second half of the season and of course have maybe the best goaltender in the world playing at the top of his game. They lack elite scoring punch but play balanced, consistent hockey. They don’t really need much if Miller plays insanely well; enough offense out of the likes of Vanek and Stafford can get them out of the 1st round with a monumental upset.
But my money is on Philly to roll. Danny Briere is a Sabre killer and there are just too many weapons on this team for it to stay dormant for four games out of seven. Unless of course the goaltending is awful and then it doesn’t really matter. This will be a great series in my estimation and might go the distance but
Flyers in 6
#6 Montreal Canadiens vs. #3 Boston Bruins
Oh yippee dee! We have ourselves a Habs/Bruins matchup! Boy, they don’t get any chippier than this. Welcome back to Original Six facesmashing, folks, it’s gonna be fun. What’s not to like about two teams as old as time beating each other up because they quite frankly despise their opponents, their logo and everything it stands for?
More importantly, are you going to tell me that the massive WWE meltdown earlier this year between these two teams and the ensuing retaliations are not going to pepper this 1st round with all sorts of pleasantries? It’ll be fun to watch but honestly, that’s where the intrigue stops.
The Canadiens don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Bruins (or anybody else) on the scoreboard and their defense is broken with injuries. Carey Price is pretty good in goal but Tim Thomas across the pond is even better. The way these two stack up, the games will be entertaining and violent but the results will be one sided. And Zdeno Chara. Enuff said?
Of course, the Habs can pull a 2010 with Cammalleri and co. playing out of their heads but I just don’t see Cindy #2 happening any time soon. But watch this stuff anyway cuz it might get bloody!
Bruins in 5
#5 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #4 Tampa Bay Lightning
This not being quite the Penguins team that dominated the Eastern Conference for the past couple of years and certainly not as explosive without Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, they may surprise with their defense, perhaps tops in the conference. Conversely, the Lightning can light up the scoreboard but, sadly, also have a knack for letting their opponents do the same.
This will be an interesting series to watch in that it’s entirely possible that the Penguins’ playoff savvy shore up the gaps in their scoring with their two best scorers unavailable indefinitely. The Penguins can win a series if it comes down to intangibles and special teams although if their defense is unable to slow down Tampa’s scorers, it won’t really matter at all when they can’t keep up.
Still, the edge has to go to a team that has been a dominant force in the East for the last several years to make it work some way.
Penguins in 5
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alright that's it for now. not a bad start. let's see how we do
see ya soon!
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