Thursday, September 20, 2012

NFL Week 3 Picks!

8-8 last week.


Worst week in recent memory. As some anonymous reader suggested, you’re better off making your picks based off of Vegas odds. Maybe he or she is right.

But they’re probably not.

Giants @ Panthers
So Eli Manning has this habit of bringing his team back from horrendous holes afforded by the Giants’ awful defense. He’s pretty amazing, have you heard? One of my favorite QBs in the league. He has big talented receivers and an incredible sense for the dramatic all while being as stoically unreadable as a lamppost. He has a couple things going against him this week though. Injuries to both Bradshaw and Nicks take away a quasi reliable run game and his biggest, baddest receiver. I love Victor Cruz but Cruz is a function of Nicks’ size and possession ability. The Panthers are not the best team defensively but have the ability to shut down the NY running attack, making them one dimensional and we saw what happened to the Saints last weekend when that happens. If the Giants fall behind early, they might not make it back the same way they stormed on Tampa last weekend. I like Cam to again terrorize the second level with the threat of his legs and the power of his arm. Panthers at home, baby.
Panthers

NOT AGAIN lol

17-16.
YUCK.


Bills at Browns
I’ve spent the early part of this season fixated on up and coming teams turning the corner and while some have, some have been a mix bag. One of those teams is the Bills who looked like shit against the Jets in week 1 but then devastated a Chiefs team I thought coming into the season was going to surprise. I still think last week is the aberration and as good as Spiller is, KC wasn’t any good in week 1 against the run either. The Browns on the other hand are an underrated defense, apparently have found a QB in Weeden and have a stud RB in Richardson. And I don’t trust the Bills on the road.
Browns

Niners at Vikings
I wish there was a way I could predict the Vikings win and sound like a genius but as improved as Christian Ponder has appeared to be and as quickly and strongly as AP has returned, I cannot bet against the best team in the game, right now. Niners trump the Vikes in every aspect of the game with *maybe* the exception of running back although the Niners don’t have too shabby a backfield committee themselves. This one’s a lock.
Niners

Lions at Titans
The Titans might have the worst defense in all of football and that’s saying a lot cuz there’s some really craptastic ones. Mix that with an explosive offense like the one the Lions sport and that spells doom. Chris Johnson is having an even more disastrous season than even, say, McFadden and that’s pretty bad. Jake Locker is even more inaccurate than I last remember him. That can’t be good.
Lions

Bengals at Redskins
The issue with my pick here is that the Washington defense is decimated at key positions. It simply leaves room for an ambiguously middling team like the Bengals who aren’t great at anything (but not awful at anything either) to come in and grind one out. Which could still happen. Except for RG3 bouncing back from a tough loss against a surprisingly good Rams team. Yeah, they’ll bounce back.
Redskins

Chiefs at Saints
The Chiefs are starting to look a lot like how the Raiders look to me; could-have-beens. They can’t hope to catch the Saints tripping for a third straight week and certainly not at home. Of course the Saints are a disaster themselves, showing that Sean Payton was a lot more important to this team’s leadership, playcalling and discipline than was previously figured. Still, they have enough talent (and Drew Brees) to beat the Chiefs and get their first win of the season.
Saints

Jets at Dolphins
I don’t say this as a jilted Raider fan but the Dolphins got very lucky last week and played (and consequently demolished) a really, disjointed, awful team in the Raiders. They play a better Jets team who should do just barely enough to win the game. Let’s just say guys like Hartline aren’t going to light up the Jets D… with or without Revis.
Jets

Jags at Colts
I generally like what I’m seeing out of the Colts. I think they’ve got a ways to go in terms of team sync but the offense has its potential even in spite of a questionable offensive line. The Jags are not quite a bad as they seem but they’re also not good enough to win on the road in Indy especially after Andrew Luck notched his first career win and is now hungry for one against a beatable divisional rival. I like the Colts at home with a rookie quarterback.
Colts

Bucs at Cowboys
Two things can happen here: either the Bucs come out and bounce back from a tough 2nd half controversial meltdown of a loss and take it to the Cowboys with basically the same nice balance of strong defense and effective offense… or the Cowboys explode offensively (as they certainly are capable of doing) after being suffocated by the Seahawks and run away with it early. At which point a heavy dose of DeMarco Murray won’t help. I’m betting on scenario B.
Cowboys

Rams at Bears
My initial pick was the Bears. I had picked them against the Pack because I thought they were balanced and potent… much like a poor man’s Niners. Instead, their defense looked Swiss, their running game worthless even with Forte out there and Cutler melted down. What they run into this week is one of the best stories so far this season, a Rams team that finally has enough healthy pieces to show off what most people around the NFL thought they were getting in Sam Bradford and a defense loaded with talented, young studs. The Bears running game will still be pressed to move the rock and Cutler is going to be throwing into coverages all day. I’m not so thrilled about the Bears in this one but I do think the team will find a way to overcome all the drama surrounding the team right now, Forte’s injury and somehow eke out a win at home. My head tells me Rams…but my gut says
Da Bears

Eagles at Cardinals
I’m taking the Cards. I don’t like bandwagons but I’d be an even bigger chump if I ignored a real trend like the Cards and their killer defense. They have all sorts of questions on offense, primarily in the passing game but they’ve been getting it done defensively and I expect that to continue to put them in excellent field position to continue to just smother opponents into the turf especially with Michael Vick playing mistake prone football. The Bird bowl is between two undefeated’s but I am less impressed by the Eagles than I am by the Cards even though they snuck by the Ravens. And they’re at home. Call it a trendy pick but I’m going with the
Cards

Falcons at Chargers
The Chargers are home favorites here. Understandably so; they’re a talented squad with an uncharacteristic 2-0 start and are starting to get healthy again. That would be fine if it weren’t for the fact that the team coming in is probably the second best team in the NFC right now with an excellent balance of strong defense both against the pass and the run, a good run game and an elite passing attack. The Chargers have taken advantage of two really awful teams en route to 2-0. The Falcons showed they were for real with how thoroughly they dominated a fairly strong squad in Denver. This is a big test for both teams as we gotta see the Falcons string these kinds of wins on the road and we need to see the Chargers beat somebody good before we start talking about their hottest start maybe ever. My monies are on Matty ICEEEE
Falcons

Steelers at Raiders
I could write an entire blog on the Raiders and how this one will go down but I’m going to keep it simple. Unless Coach Allen and co. ditch the now infamous ZBS (zone blocking scheme) for the power game that unlocked McFadden last season, this is going to be another 10-15 yards on the ground performance and a loss. Which is pretty much what’s going to happen. FML.
Steelers

Texans at Broncos
Boy, the Broncos sure did get a tough opening schedule. After looking great against the Steelers on Opening Night, they were handled (despite the customary late Peyton surge) by the Falcons and now draw the Texans who might have the best defense in the AFC lol YAY! The Texans can run the ball better than the Falcons and wear that defense down the same way that Turner and co. did allowing them to buoy themselves for when Peyton starts to toss self-targetting heatseekers all over the field. Three extremely tough defenses to start the season for Peyton. Who said he’d break? Lol Still…
Texans

Patriots at Ravens
One of the games of the week. Some pundits say that the Patriots lost last week because Coach Belichick refused to roll out the whole playbook in anticipation of this game. Pfft. Coach Belichick does whatever is necessary (even videotape OMG lulz) to win. The Pats have other issues to worry about than hiding plays from the next team on the schedule and those issues might be exploited this week when now free-throwing Joe Flacco lines up under center. The Ravens defense is going to be raring to go after losing a tough one to the Eagles and they’ll be at home. I like the Ravens in this one.
Ravens

Packers at Seahawks
Call me stupid but I’m picking against the Pack for the third straight week. I love Aaron Rodgers and his receiving corps but I just don’t know how much longer we can keep forgiving this team for being OK at everything else. Not bad, granted, and the number their D put on Chicago was pretty funny as an unbias bystander but that defense won’t scare many week in and week out. Now the Seahawks don’t have a particularly good passing offense but Marshawn Lynch is going to stampede through that soft defense all day in Seattle. The Packers as explosive offensively as they are will find playing against the top notch Seahawk defense very hard to manage in Seattle where it will always seem like there are 12 guys on the field. It might be low scoring and with Benson and Lynch grinding it out but this is going to the home team in what will be a shocking upset (for some).
Seahawks

There. I’ll continue to be bold with my picks.
DIG IT.

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