Wednesday, November 7, 2012

NFL Week 10 Picks!


The fascinating thing about predicting anything is that the prognostication itself is a function of existing data and the better (and if you’re doing it on the fly, the faster) one is able to collect, prioritize and analyze relevant data, the easier it is to make a prediction. In a sport with as many moving parts and dynamic variables as Football, the game is exciting as a result.

That said, I consistently prove that while my football knowledge is elite (or at least I think so lol)... my gambling skill is worse than the Kansas City Chiefs. For a second consecutive week, I did not play the pool and again I finish with a strong 11-3 count.

It’s also apparent I should never pick the Raiders if I ever want to see them win anything ever again. #weepfailsleep

73-49
After a horrendous start to the year, I’m storming back. Cue the Black Stallion theme.

Colts at Jags
It’s really exciting to see a young team led by a rookie getting the game quickly inspired by their coach’s off-field fight to bring the fight on the field week in and week out. After last year’s awful season, the Colts are turning in one of the best stories of the year and at 5-3 are looking playoff bound. Luck gets a chance to show off his wares on the road against a division rival, albeit the bottom feeder Jags, and cement the Colts as a favorite for a wildcard spot. There are still questions about the Colts defense but fortunately for them this week, the Jags are unlikely to take advantage of it. It’s a pity to see Jacksonville’s defense go to waste every week.
Colts

Lions at Vikings
Tough call. The Lions are on a roll climbing back to respectability after looking really bad for the first portion of the season but at the half way point, they’ve revitalized themselves on both sides of the ball.  They’ll need it; Adrian Peterson comes in playing better football than I have seen him play since his rookie campaign. The Vikes are looking to bounce back after a tough loss to the surprising Colts and, at home in a divisional rivalry, should be able to hang a few scores, dominate the clock with AP and suffocate the Lions’ offense just enough to win out. It’s a tough call but I’m going with the home team.
Vikings

Giants at Bengals
Boy it couldn’t be a worse time for the Bengals to host the G-men. The Giants certainly can go through funks (as we’ve seen over the past few years)  but they lost a heartbreaker at home in the wake of Sandy and have otherwise been one of the stronger squads this season. The Bengals are reeling with four straight losses so expect the Giants to do the same as the last four have.
Giants

Titans at Dolphins
Titans have looked resilient at times this season for a 3-6 team but that defense is still swiss cheese and the Dolphins even at a middling 4-4 have looked strong. At least strong enough with Tannehill at the helm to put up points and win at home. I like the Dolphin defense at home, too and that should seal the deal if they can bottle up CJ2k.
Dolphins

Bills at Patriots
The Patriots already own the Bills to begin with but Buffalo is moving backwards and moving backwards fast. It’s disappointing that a team with both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson can put up duds on offense regardless of the competition but that’s the kind of offense the Bills have. After getting smacked by the Pats in Buffalo earlier in the year, I don’t expect them to come into town and beat the Pats coming off a bye, coming off a beatdown.
Patriots

Falcons at Saints
My upset bid of the week. The Falcons are the class of the NFC right now at 8-0, no doubt but they are due for a loss and it is better to get it out of the way and there is no better game to do it than against an explosive offense like New Orleans’. It’ll allow them to reassess what they need to do on defense to shut down big game QBs, something they’ll have to deal with if they hope to win a Super Bowl. The Saints have turned their season around and may be feeling a little bit of their own magical Cinderella pixie dust with all the turmoil and chaos surrounding their franchise right now. The Saints are still fairly whack on defense but they are also at home in tha Bayou and I just think the Falcons are due for a let down.
Saints

Chargers at Bucs
The Bucs ran the ball something wicked all over the faces of the Raiders. I yelled. I cursed. I wept. The Bucs are stronger than most realize and Doug Martin didn’t run shod on a bad Raider run D (in fact they had been good most of the year)... he ran all over them like he had run all over the Vikings who are ALSO strong against the run. The Chargers are tough against the run too but I don’t expect that to matter much as the rookie has really found his groove and it really opens things up for what is also a big game passing attack for Tampa. Expect VJ to light up the Charger secondary, Rivers to continue making peculiar errors and the Chargers to shoot themselves in the foot on the road, traveling East against a tough Buccaneer team.
Bucs

Broncos at Panthers
So this guy Peyton’s pretty good. I can’t even imagine what the win +/- is for the Broncos without him. Definitely a 3-5 swing from 5-3 but probably even worse than that. He has revitalized the organization and they are looking primed to win the West. They’ve won a lot of close games which leaves the door open for a strong opponent to give them trouble but the Panthers are not that strong team even coming off their second win of the season over the struggling Redskins. I still have questions about Cam’s new offense as it still looks all over the place and the Panther defense is a mess (which sucks when you have to deal with Peyton). Even on the road, the Broncos should continue their roll.
Broncos

Raiders at Ravens
I’m not even going to mess with this.
Ravens (go RAIIIDERRRRSSS now you have my blessing, JUST WIN BABY!)

Jets at Seahawks
I can’t seem to figure out what my opinion on the Jets actually is. They aren’t very good. They’re not good in the passing game, they aren’t good in the running game, they aren’t as good as they usually are on defense, their special teams are meh, and their coach has just been voted the most overrated coach in the league. All that amounts to a rank mediocrity. The Seahawks on the other hand, despite being manned by a rookie QB, are underrated offensively, powerful defensively and even more intimidating at the latter when at home. Which they are. Lynch runs rampant. Wilson throws a couple scores. Defense gives up nothing. Carroll hustles Sanchez.
Seahawks

Cowboys at Eagles
If you thought the Eagles were bad against the mediocre Saints’ rush, then wait until you see how offensive their offensive line will be when the Cowboys come to town. The Cowboys are solid on defense and would be a top five unit if it weren’t for the unending vomit of mistakes from the other side of the ball that puts them in a position to fail. That won’t be a problem on the road against Philly where they will play tough divisional ball, chase Vick around the field all day, and play better away from big D as they almost always do.
Cowboys

Rams at Niners
The Rams look so promising at points. It just really won’t matter when they travel to San Fran and deal with a surging Niners team. This can, like all NFC West games these days, be a tightly contested one but I just don’t see the Rams being able to bottle up Frank Gore all day long and I can’t even imagine how much of a difference Amendola will make in scoring on the Niner defense at home. Niners continue to roll.
Niners

Texans at Bears
The game of the week no doubt. Two 7-1 teams that run the ball well, play stellar defense and have enough moxie and guts to win any game on any day. However, only one of these teams walks away 8-1 and that team will be the Houston Texans. It’s true that the Bears defense has been monstrous all season and that Cutler has consistently shown a chemistry with Brandon Marshall that seems to supercede every coverage and doubleteam. The wildcard for the Texans’ offense will be to balance Arian Foster with the passing game where Andre Johnson has been shut down by strong corner play and there isn’t anyone in football playing better than Charles Tillman right now. I had initially picked the Texans to win for a couple of reasons but mostly because of Tillman's possible absence for the birth of his child. So why am I changing my pick? Because if there was a player in this game that could change the way the game might play out, it's Tillman. I don't even know why I'm starting Andre Johnson in my fantasy league. Game of the week, I tell you. You may as well toss a coin. But I’m going with the
Bears

Chiefs at Steelers
Yawn. It would take a grand meltdown or injury-fest for the Steelers to lose this one. The Chiefs are a mess. If they win this week, I’m sending Romeo Crennel a bouquet of roses. It’s a really good thing I won’t have to do that.
Steelers

Dig it.

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