NFL Week 1 Picks

The Kickoff.

Football, of course, has returned from the depths of those meaningless months that litter the calendar between February and August to deliver us from darkness. Months of speculation, fantasy draft posturing, twitter-scouring, and crystal-balling have brought us to the verge of a new season and now we have the task of sorting through all of the muck and whatever else information we've gleaned from the preseason to make sense of what is to come.

So like the prognosticators across the nation that are offering up their soothsaying on everything from division pecking orders to who will win the big game, I'd like to share some priceless truths of my own lol or something like that, at any rate.

The league plays out this year like a sprawled mess, the sort of league we've come to love. There is a distinct air of a changing of guard, a coming of a new alpha, the rise of a dynasty for this decade. There are teams on both sides that have established themselves as players while pools of new contenders are ever growing on both sides. In the AFC, we respect the Ravens, acknowledge the Broncos, know the Patriots are still there and should know the Texans are too. The Bengals seem poised to join that conversation. Maybe Indy. In the NFC, the Niners are not alone at the top of it and have to play that team twice. The Falcons look to have gotten better. Packers are more balanced. The Saints could be back and you could never discount the Giants it seems. How does that play out?

I think it's Seattle. That dogfight in the NFC West is going to produce two hardy warriors but the one that survives ultimately will be beast. But we can talk odds starting week 2.

But I get way ahead of myself. Let the games begin. They do, and we're treated to

Ravens at Broncos

A rematch of last year's AFC Divisional game as a great start to the present season. After all, that was one of those games you remember watching years after you did, what, with all the deep throws, come backs and tentative suspense. Due to wholesale departures for the Ravens in the offseason including mainstays Ed Reed, Ray Lewis and Anquan Boldin, not many are up on the defending SB champs. As a result, they're heavy dogs in this tilt with the Broncos who added Wes Welker to an already impressive receiving corps. That said, I'm thinking the Ravens aren't getting much respect here. They upgraded on D with Dumervil (who's going to want to light the Broncos up) and while they've lost guys in the passing game, their ground game is still strong and complements Flacco.

The Broncos do get a bit of an edge because of Peyton and home field but we've seen now what Flacco and co. can do under the lights and given how overlooked they are in this match up, I wouldn't be surprised if they pull off the upset to begin their title defense. And if you're betting, DEFINITELY take the cover.
Ravens

Patriots at Bills

While the Pats always look on the verge of falling apart when they lose key guys or load up on a bunch of no namers in key positions, they almost never do. In fact, even with Hernandez gone, Gronk out for the first few weeks, and Welker gone to Denver, Brady has an impressive young crew to work with and it'll likely be enough to win the East again. Conversely, their division mates in Buffalo have yet another dismal season to look forward to and one thing is for certain; they'll either have a rookie QB coming off surgery or an undrafted rookie QB coming off obscurity under center for the foreseeable future.

The Pats have looked either stellar or awful this preseason. My guesses are on the Pats looking real strong against the Bills this week.
Patriots

Bengals at Bears

Like the Ravens, Chicago underwent a sort of retooling with longtime anchor on defense, Brian Urlacher, gone and a whole new coaching staff, and likewise offense, in town. They still have many of the pieces on offense that made them a tantalizing trendy pick to be a serious contender but they're about to go toe to toe with a Bengals team whose run game is finally about to complement the Dalton/Green combo. Unlike the Bears who've taken a step back in this sense, though, Cincy's defense is an elite unit and will be the difference in this game and many more down the line.

Cincy's defense will be enough to limit Chicago's scoring and their run game the difference on the other side of the ball. Cincy is the new hot thing and Chicago is in a rebuild mode regardless of how good it might look.
Bengals

Dolphins at Browns

In spite of the noisy offseason, the Dolphins' prospects are really no better than those of the Browns who are slowly but consistently improving. Truth is, I like Cleveland's offense more than Miami's and as long as Weeden plays the way he has through preseason, the Browns should take this game. Cleveland's defense is an underrated unit, as well and will be the difference in this game, especially at home. Cleveland's receivers are unproven, though and the weakest link for this team. The Dolphins are going to continue to rely on Tannehill even though their passing game still just isn't convincing me. Lamar Miller can save this offense but that's a lot of load.

Browns should stifle Miami's questionable O and I expect Weeden to parlay his intriguing preseason into a successful opening act. Pick the Browns with confidence.
Browns

Vikings at Lions

The talk in Detroit, understandably, is about Reggie Bush and how he'll take some of the pressure off of the Starscream (yeah that's Stafford's surprisingly unpenned yet telling nickname) and megatron combo. The question is whether it'll be enough to make the Lions a serious team as what usually ends up happening is a unit-wide failure on the defensive side of the ball and almost no contribution from the ground game, key elements of successful teams. The Vikes are a more balanced team but they live and die, at least now, by the performance of the best player in the NFL Adrian Peterson.

Lions will show off their new fancy passing game, utilizing Bush especially and hanging on defensively just enough to keep the Vikes from scoring more often.
Lions

Raiders at Colts

I hate doing this. I really do. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL. They are awful in the passing game, haven't shown anything on the ground yet (it's possible and I AM holding my breath that McFadden has simply been coddled thus far due to his fragile nature), and their defense, though improved, is going to get abused by taking the field over 60% of every game. The injured offensive line that is already no good to begin with will get murdered and that means whatever QB they trot out there is also going to get murdered. The Colts are a strong bet to win their division with the expectations for Andrew Luck skyrocketing after an impressive rookie campaign and he's got weapons in Wayne, Hilton and, now, DHB.

The Colts are going to pass their way to a victory with a spirited effort by DHB with the Raider defense on the field too long and exhausted. Pryor just won't be able to will his team to an opener on the road.
Colts

Falcons at Saints

In a lot of ways, the Falcons are the better team. They were supposed to go to the Super Bowl were it not for a total 2nd half meltdown against the Niners. Their passing game is maturing and remains their strength. The ground game is improved with S JAX and his ability to catch out the backfield and that means that even with their defense having not truly been improved, they are capable of being right back in the NFC championship.  Conversely, the league got a reprieve last year with the Saints due to the discordant season they had with Payton's suspension and all the drama that surrounded the team. And still, the Saints had that explosive upside where they could drop 50 on you before you cracked your first beer.

The Saints are going to be at home and are starting a brand new slate with a nutty offense, their coach's official triumphant return and a divisional short term memory. The Falcons are very nice and I still think they're the better team. But New Orleans is a city that loves to party.
Saints

Buccaneers at Jets

The Bucs are giving Josh Freeman one last run, I think. Rather than the positive trajectory that his start would have indicated, he's been frustratingly declining. He has the weapons though, especially with the rise of Doug Martin, to challenge the Falcons and Saints for the division but the Bucs are so unpredictable across the board, it is hard to tell. The Jets are a mess as they have been for years now but at least their defense can still stop people. Their passing game is a question mark, their run game is relying on unreliable pieces and they are in a division that's already won.

At home, the Jets are usually stout on D so they could frustrate the Bucs but I think there's too much firepower coming to town and a lot to prove for Freeman.
Bucs

Titans at Steelers

The Steelers are dealing with what can be best described as a paradigm shift in team philosophy. For the past year or so, they've really deviated from the run-heavy, between the tackles, defensive stalwart character and moving towards a pass-happy, light defensive team. Big Ben is near the end of his peak but he still has a slew of weapons as long as the young offensive line can give him time. The Titans are continuing to rebuild their defense but at least CJ2K is going to look decent enough this year behind a reworked offensive line. Their passing game still sucks but at least they are growing whereas before they weren't.

Steelers should have this game at home with a strong display of big passing games.
Steelers

Seahawks at Panthers

The Panther defense is going to be one of the better units in the NFL, Cam will shake off some of that sophomore slump he had goin on last year and the Panthers are going to surprise people with an-above-.500 season. They  open their season with a difficult task of beating what may be one of the top three teams if not a potential champ in Seattle. The Hawks have a running game that's diverse and deep, a passing game that is spearheaded by Russell Wilson and one of the best if not the best defense in the NFL.

The Panthers are going to be nice this year but this is a very tough assignment to start the season.  Even though they're at home, they're going to be dominated by one of the trendier but more intriguing SB contenders, the
Seahawks

Chiefs at Jaguars

This used to be a game that looked boring on the schedule, only now the Chiefs are on the uptick and the Jags, well, they're at least trying. The Chiefs have a QB finally to go with their solid defense and that should also open things up for Charles in the ground game, as well. The Chiefs may not make much noise in the bigger picture but they should be good for seven to nine wins and one of them should come this week against the Jags. MJD will be great for JAX as long as he stays healthy but that's mostly important to fantasy owners and whoever he'll be playing for next year when he's earned a fat contract.

Chiefs are going to run the ball well, Alex Smith will distribute the ball effectively and the Jags are going to struggle with that KC defense.
Chiefs

Cardinals at Rams

The story out west is that the NFC West continues to be a hotly contested division even with the hotshot Niners and Hawks leading the way. The Cardinals brought Carson Palmer into the mix to make Larry Fitzgerald relevant again. Granted, their offensive line is whack and Palmer may break back there but at least the Cards will be more competitive than they were down the stretch last year. The Rams continue to be a middle of the pack performer although they do play their divisional rivals tough. Tavon Austin will give 

Bradford an explosive weapon to complement the blue collar approach the team takes on both sides of the ball.

I'm not quite sold on the changes being made down in Arizona. This game will be low scoring, both defenses holding it down with the Rams having just enough extra to secure a win at home.
Rams

Packers at 49ers

One of the games of the week, no doubt. The Niners are at the top of power rankings as expected after falling just short of the championship. The Packers are healthy and have improved their rushing attack which was often the only thing standing between the Packers and real balance. However, even with Eddie Lacy giving A-Rod that extra weapon on offense, beating the Niners in San Fran to start the season is a tall order. The Niners are well rested and determined to get back to where they left off, a botched play away from being champs. It'll be interesting to see how Kaepernick deals with the sophomore blues but if he can keep it together, this game should be a victory.

The Pack will cover but don't expect the Niners to fold to kick off the 2013 season at home.
Niners

Giants at Cowboys

America's game. As good a way to start off a new season as there is with this old school matchup on Sunday night. One has to wonder how much better the Cowboys can be if DeMarco Murray gets it going. Romo has guys to throw the ball to but he shouldn't be dropping back on every snap; we know what happens when he does that. The Giants are going to have to rely on David Wilson a lot this year as their running back depth is shot. Granted, he's a beast but Eli has shown to be very vulnerable in one dimensional offenses so he'll be needed.

Normally, I'd say going into Dallas for a primetime game to start the season isn't a good situation for opponents but Eli loves these kinds of games. The Boys are favorites in this one but I'm going out on a limb.
Giants

Eagles at Redskins

No, no, there's no East coast bias lol Ok so there is. We get yet another NFC East rivalry in primetime with the new look Eagles visiting the up and coming Redskins. I'm excited to see this new Chip Kelly offense and rumors of a rejuvenated, motivated Vick. The Eagle defense is still a hot mess so it's possible that all the talk about that crazy offense in Philly is for naught. The Redskins are just glad to be healthy again. If RGIII and Garcon can stay on the field, along with the continued rise of Alfred Morris, the Skins could make some serious noise in the East given that I'm still not sold on either the Giants or the Cowboys as having a clear shot at the division.

The Eagles will score a ton of points. They might even win this game. However, there is too much disparity in the defenses to expect them to beat the Redskins in Washington.
Redskins

Texans at Chargers

The Texans are getting love across the board but really, I am excited to see how good these guys end up being. Foster's problems are overblown, Cushing is back and Deandre Hopkins is the real deal. That means the Texans have an explosive passing game (check), one of the best ground attacks in the NFL (check), one of the top defenses in the NFL (check) and an easy division (with the exception of the Colts but they should be better than them)(check). As for the Chargers, the only team that can do worse than them in the AFC West is the Raiders and while that may be a lock, that really isn't a lock. It's scary to think that this once perennial contender has been reduced to Ryan Mathews as its only real bright spot.

The Texans will open with a strong win on the road.
Texans

dig it