NFL Week 3 Picks!

Typically 13-3 will win you most weeks… but a 14-2 on the charity of Tennessee’s improbable win over Baltimore last week beat me to the punch. No matter. I am a combined 24-8 moving into the 3^rd week of the season. And it’s a tough one.

Having waited to the last possible moment, bear with my succinctness…

Patriots @ Bills
The Bills can win this game and it wouldn’t even surprise me but they are still picked by only 1 out of 32 folks in my pool and less than 10% of folks across the internet. Hmm, then again I also picked the Patriots lol The Bills have a lot of familiarity with their divisional rival and have the offense (and emerging defense?) to at least challenge, especially at home. However, Belichick is evil and will find a way to ruin that.
Patriots

Niners @ Bengals
The Niners lose Braylon Edwards but regain Michael Crabtree. My guess is that this frees up the offense, actually and expect more from Vernon Davis and Frank Gore. The Niners have what it takes to win most weeks but shoot themselves in the foot with inexplicable failures like the debacle that was allowing Dallas back into the game last week. No matter, if they remain focused, they should win in Cincy.
Niners

Dolphins @ Browns
Ok, Brownies, don’t you pull a Browns on me. I picked you against the Bungles and they beat you. I picked the Colts over you and you beat me. The Dolphins have no run game, their offense has been running off Ether dust or something as Chad Henne cannot sustain that sort of QB play and the Browns at least have an emerging stud perhaps in Colt. And I just like the Browns at home, they always bring it kinda nasty. No Peyton Hillis is a buzzkill but Hardesty can roll.
Browns

Broncos @ Titans
Well if last week is any indication, the Titans are very tough defensively at home and can rush the passer well. Orton and the Broncos get sacked a lot. McGahee looks fresher than years past but this doesn’t bode well. If Chris Johnson can finally get it together this year, this would be the week as Denver also was gouged by Darren McFadden a couple weeks ago and showed how its done. Hasselbeck has been quietly pretty good (and healthy).
Titans

Lions @ Vikings
I’ve been saying this all week but Minnesota’s strength offensively is Adrian Peterson and that goes straight into Detroit’s strength defensively, Suh and the (dis)ASSEMBLY LINE. I thought of that one myself. Also by the way, Stafford to Megatron is getting sexier by the week, Jahvid Best is starting to earn his draft position and the Lions, everybody’s trendy pick this year to make the most improvement, are keeping the hype alive.
Lions

Texans @ Saints
A shootout this might be but one in Nawlins usually ends with a Saints victory. The Saints offense will be the best challenge Houston’s “improved” defense has seen so after this week we’ll be able to rightly assess them but I don’t think they’ll be able to stop the attack enough times.
Saints

Giants @ Eagles
Vick is cleared to play and that’s all you need to know here. The Giants didn’t look good last week or the week before and the Eagles need Vick out there (Kafka was surprisingly good but obviously not that hard to scheme for). The Eagle want to bounce back from a tough loss in primetime and have their rivals at home. Eli will get a mouthful of Trent Cole before it’s all said n done.
Eagles

Jags @ Panthers
I’ll keep this one very simple. The Jags secondary is going to get shredded worse than either of Cam’s last two match ups and that alone is scary enough for me to pick the Panthers to win this game at home. 500 yards combined offense for the rook? Not at all impossible.
Panthers

Chiefs @ Chargers
Only by the hand of God can or will the Chiefs pull an upset here. Nothing to see or talk about here, move along.
Chargers

Jets @ Raiders
Man, I can go on forever on this one but I’ll keep it sweet. The Raiders are coming off a tough loss on a short week and an early start in Buffalo. The defense knows it failed an offense that was highlighted by Denarius Moore showing off the skills he’s been showing all camp and preseason. I believe that Richard Seymour will get the defense riled up for the sold out home opener and the Black Hole will turn Mark Sanchez into the hot dog. McFadden and Bush will hammer away at the tough Gang Green until its blue.
DA RAAAIDAAAAZZ

Ravens @ Rams
I hate schizo teams. Right now, the Ravens are in my doghouse. The Rams have a lot of heart and a ton of skill but the amount of mistakes they made last week against the Giants was just inexcusable. The Ravens defense will not let those sorts of mistakes go untapped. Flacco wakes up from his flaccid slumber.
Ravens

Cardinals @ Seahawks
How bad are the Seahawks? The Cards who have one of the most swiss cheese defenses in the league are probably going to look like the Steel Curtain in Seattle today. And at least they have productive offensive players with Kolb-Fitzgerald lookin nice and Hightower running hard. Seattle? Well, Tarvaris Jackson…
Cardinals

Falcons @ Bucs
Hmm. The Falcons won last week mostly off of X factors. They won the crowd back when Vick got smacked out the game, Matty Ice finally started releasing the ball a little bit quicker (and a little bit before Trent Cole would wind up on top of him) and the Falcons snuck out, at home, a pretty awesome win. The Bucs always play the Falcons tough and have shown that they have the talent to strike whenever and pretty hard. If Josh Freeman can play in the 1^st half the way he plays in every 4^th quarter he’s ever played, the Bucs win this game and many more this year.
Bucs

Packers @ Bears
The toughest pick, by far. The Pack does have trouble in Chicago, it’s a place they’ve played many many times before and the rivalry is HOT. Green Bay’s secondary is suspect, Cutler has been throwing the ball better and the Bears really beat the Packers last year in primetime when they were considered not to have much of a chance. If the Bears come out with the same intensity they did at home against the Falcons in week 1, they’ll take this.
Bears

Steelers @ Colts
Overkill. The Steelers need only play 1 quarter of offense to win this game. Colts are in disarray. How is Jeff George’s name even in the news? Better question, why?
Steelers

Redskins  @ Cowboys
Nice… I don’t like the Cowboys, I think Tony Romo is fake and there might be something brewin in the nation’s Capital. Redskins on the road against division rival with tough, tough defense, a smart Rex and big running backs.
Redskins

NFL Week 2 Picks!

Seeing as how I’ve waited to the eve of battle to do this, I’ll keep it short n sweet. I went a decent 11-5 in opening week but it wasn’t enough to win out in an office pool so for all intents and purposes, I did not perform well.

It’s time to take this to another level.

Jags at Jets
The Jags snuck out of last week thanks to a dismal performance from their opponent, the Titans. McCown will need to use the Force to complete anything over 10 yards against the Jets defense that bent but did not break against an underrated Cowboys offense. Too much is being made of the sluggish start that New York had, they’ll handily shut down the Jacksonville passing game and force into being one dimensional.
Jets

Bears at Saints
The Bears defense smothered a pretty good Falcons offense and they might be even scarier this week with Urlacher playing with a heavy heart. That said, they’ll be in the Superdome and facing a Saints offense that scored enough points last week to have almost beaten anyone they’d have played and who are miffed that it all amounted to a loss.
Saints

Raiders at Bills
Too much is being made of Buffalo’s piledriver in KC. The Chiefs are terrible and have been in an epic offensive rut since the last month or so of the PREVIOUS season. The Bills looked good but a grain of salt is required; KC’s ineptitude is nothing new. The Raiders on the other hand overcame a ridiculous amount of penalties and mistakes to beat a divisional rival on the road in primetime that was rockin’ the house (the camera was literally shaking) to put up 190 yards rushing and harass both lines en route to a victory which means we know the Raiders can go into a hostile environment early in the season and shoulder that initial blitzkrieg of energy, stay settled and grind out a win.
Raiders

 Cardinals at Redskins
The Cards secondary gave up the most yards ever to a rookie QB in his debut and they were at home and barely won. The Redskins showed that they can play some really gritty football at home and have a surprisingly effective offense under 2^nd year head coach Mike Shanahan to go with their very good defense. Tim Hightower has a chip the size of Arizona on his shoulder and a lot of skill. Redskins will run the ball down Arizona’s throat, set up the pass, take advantage of their opportunities and win at home to go up 2-0 in the division. Hmm… was Rex onto something? Lulz
for a week anyway…
Redskins

Ravens at Titans
No amount of tape can be watched in Nashville to change the outcome of this game. They couldn’t stop Jacksonville’s offense and couldn’t figure out their defense. What on Earth are they going to do against Cam Cameron and Ray Rice?
Ravens

Seahawks at Steelers
The wrong time to be playing the Steelers in Pitts. Yuck.
Steelers

Packers at Panthers
The Pack is the best team in football. They won the Super Bowl without a couple of their best players and with them, look even scarier. Cam Newton will be lucky to get 200 yards against this secondary. He’s good and his chemistry with Steve Smith is enticing but this week there’ll be a whole lot of scrambling with the two Viking warlords THOR I (Clay Matthews) and THOR II (AJ Hawk) chasing him all day.
Packers

Bucs at Vikings
I don’t expect McNabb to throw for 39 yards every week (the Chargers do have a pretty good secondary and pass rush after all) but I also don’t expect McNabb to look anything like his old self against Tampa or anyone else anytime soon. The Bucs had a rough, underperforming week 1 and will look to bounce back on the road with more touches for Blount and a much better performance from Josh Freeman
Bucs

Browns at Colts
Not sure why everyone’s written off the Colts. I’m not saying they’re going to win the Super Bowl or nothing but the only team in their division that is worth anything is the Texans and they are as likely to lose a division that’s theirs to lose as any team in the NFL. Anyway, about the matchup at hand: the Colts obviously looked awful but Kerry Collins looked like an old QB just out of retirement that’s unfamiliar with the playbook, snap counts, and everything else. Sounds about right. The Browns coming into Indy might be the best tonic to get some of those kinks out the system. So many folk are picking the Browns to win this game but don’t forget that these are the same Browns that threw the game away against the BUNGALZ the week before. The Colts have talent on their team but are missing the most integral part of their system and a cog that has been there for a decade and a half. They’ll get it together at home this week.
Colts

Chiefs at Lions
The Lions look formidable and would be a trendy pick for me too were it not the ruthless division they operate in. They’re still the 2^nd best team in the division at best and are more likely the 3^rd behind Chicago but they can and will beat most opponents with a stifling defensive line and high-powered (as long as healthy) offense. A whole season of Stafford to Megatron is just AWESOME. The Chiefs? *sigh* everything’s broken in KC. The top rushing attack last year is missing its offensive line this year and Haley is hardheaded idiot.
Lions

Cowboys at Niners
I grew up watching this rivalry and it’s one of my favorites mostly because I love to hate both of these teams! In all seriousness, both teams are much better than their QBs allow them to be; Romo because he makes too many mistakes and Smith because he plays like he’s perpetually afraid of making any. Smith will not beat the Cowboys (even with all their injuries to the secondary… it isn’t like he challenges very many secondary’s anyway) completing 75% of his 5 yard passes. If the Cowboys (ie Romo) can limit their mistakes, they’ll win.
Cowboys

Texans at Dolphins
This is going to be a good game and is one of the tougher to call. My initial gut reaction was that the Texans could come in on the road with their explosive offense and outscore the Phins. Then I started thinking that New England basically did the same thing only Schaub is no Brady and that the Dolphin defense can get tough at home. Buuut…. then I remembered that Henne is bound to come back down to Earth and throw a few picks into a much improved Houston secondary (maybe better even than New England’s?). The Texans can get after the QB and Henne isn’t really good in those situations. Even without Arian Foster, the Texans can put up a lot of points on Miami and put this puppy out of reach. I’m sticking with my gut.
Texans

Chargers at Patriots
Not only do the Chargers do really poorly against the Pats in Foxborough, they’re also, generally, not very good playing East Coast games (although their record playing the late start on the East Coast is much better than their early start record). This will still be one of the better games this week as Rivers always shows up against the Pats but they always manage to find ways to eliminate Rivers’ supporting cast and Brady looks at the top of his game (thought he reached that already but whatever). As good as San Diego looked last week coming back from behind against a lukewarm, one dimensional Vikings team, they’re in for yet another Belichick clinic.
Patriots

Bengals at Broncos
I can’t believe I’m doing this but I’m picking the Broncos to get their running game in order and grind out a win at home. They’re weak but I’m convinced their offense can move the ball against Cincy better than they did against an up n coming Raider defense. Defensively, Cincinnati’s offense is far more limited than Oakland’s. Broncos should be able to win this.
Broncos

Eagles at Falcons
Game of the week? The scheduling gods don’t play around (or leave anything to chance) with awesome storylines like Vick returning to Atlanta on Sunday night with his brandspankin’new dream team to take on a preseason hyped Atlanta squad that got squashed in their first action of the year. It isn’t technically a time of desperation for the Falcons given the whole South lost last week but it’s still imperative they get something in the win column ASAP. The A will be rockin’ tomorrow night.
Falcons

Rams at Giants
The Rams are ravaged by injuries after only one week. Even if Stephen Jackson plays, it’s a long shot that he’ll be a gamechanger and without their only real star, the Rams are in trouble against a Giants team looking to rebound at home.
Giants

Fastbreak Rhetoric... NBA 2nd round playoffs!

I was right about the Grizz. Or was I more right about the Spurs? I was so wrong about the Magic and the Blazers. I overestimated the Lakers and the Bulls had a tougher go than I expected. That about sums it up.

Maybe I’ll think longer and harder before round 2. Wait, it starts in a couple of hours!?

Fudge it.

And dig it.

Eastern Conference Semifinals

#5 Atlanta Hawks vs. #1 Chicago Bulls

No doubt the Hawks exacted their revenge on a Magic team that blasted them for the highest average margin in NBA playoff history a year ago. I watched stretches of the series with my pal Corey who is from the A and it was clear with how hard the Hawks played, they were driven to erase the embarrassment from a year ago by what is essentially a one man team in Orlando.

They’ll find the going much harder against the Bulls who got all their jitters out the way (at least in theory) in what was a much tougher 4-1 series victory over the Pacers than it looks on paper. They trailed in late in games, lost one and all in all did not dominate the upstart, up tempo pacers.

Kirk Hinrich’s loss is going to hurt the Hawks. Having the ex-Bull and his excellent jumpshot is a bit boost for them as they’ll undoubtedly find that the Bulls spread the ball around much more than the Magic do and have quite a few more viable weapons and who also play considerably better defense.

The Bulls will shake off their 1^st round struggles and smash through to the next round to the tune of another five game series.

Bulls in 5

#3 Boston Celtics vs. #2 Miami Heat

Where to begin and how will it end? For one, both of these teams relatively cruised through their 1^st rounds. The match up was slow cooked all year and it was only fitting that the titans would meet. Most would have preferred it be the Conference finals but nobody really saw the Bulls’ second half coming, either. Garnett, Pierce, Allen and Rondo. James, Wade, Bosh and … Chalmers?

The key to this series will be what contributions the teams are going to be able to get from the 4^th option on and if Chalmers can really step up the play at the point allowing D Wade and Lebron to play off the ball and excel as finishers. The Celtics, even with the trade of Kendrick Perkins, still have superior depth and still have Rajon Rondo who, if he dominates Chalmers, will force somebody else to run the point.

The C’s may have a Big Four but in the end, the Big Four don’t, individually, score as prolifically as either Lebron or Wade meaning that really, the Big Three and Big Four sorta even out in terms of points. It’s really the play of the point guard that makes the difference here and the edge is decidedly with Boston because of Rondo’s arrival as an elite point guard.

As close and chippy as this match up is and has been all year, the one thing that has yet to factor into their head to head battles is the playoff experience and mojo factor… of which the C’s have abundance and, outside of Wade, the Heat only have experience as losers. All the major pieces of the Celtic attack/defense have won a championship and been in last year’s loss to the Lakers. When the dial gets turned up, the Celtics are going to be even better than they were during the regular season. It stands to be seen whether the Heat are ready to hit the switch, too.

My guess is not. It’ll be an epic series, no doubt. We’re going to see some exciting basketball. DVR every game if you have to. Block your friends’ texts who run their mouths with scores and updates. This one is going the distance but

Celtics in 7

Western Conference Semifinals

#8 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #4 Oklahoma City Thunder

I love being right. Most people do. I’m just glad I trusted my instinct that the Spurs were over the hill and done, that there was a changing of the guard and that it began with the Grizz getting this monumental monkey off. Now that Zeebo and co. are everybody’s darlings and in completely uncharted territories for their franchise, it’s time to come back down to earth against a team that is a bit tougher than the Spurs.

The Thunder didn’t play as well as they could have in their first round tilt with the Nuggets. For one, there was the issue of shot distribution with Westbrook jacking up shots outside of his repertoire and not only in the single loss to the Nuggets when he put up 30 on 30 shots. That was the most obvious and awful display of it but it really was a lingering issue throughout the round. Additionally, the Thunder really didn’t shoot very well at all and it was against a team that doesn’t necessarily play good defense but were playing as tough defensively as they could.

The Grizz, on the other hand, have been playing emotionally charged basketball since game 1 tipped off. They’ve shot the ball very well in general and played as good defense as any with the likes of Tony Allen, Shane Battier and Mike Conley really showing up for the series. This is a blue collar, hard working team in Memphis and the Thunder are going to have to be much better offensively to outscore them if big guys Randolph, Gasol and Arthur get it going (they’re bigger and more talented than the bigs in Denver and have range to go with their strength).

That said, I think the Thunder will get it together. They’re too talented and too balanced to lose this series unless they play terribly and shoot themselves in the foot. Durant has to have the ball in his hands when it matters most for this team to move forward and cement itself as one of the elites in the league. I expect them to do it.

Thunder in 6

#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #2 Los Angeles Lakers

They knew they’d end up facing each other. The basketball gods hardly ever lie and the heated confrontations a little over a month ago between these two were surely a sign of emotions to come. Barnes and Blake will be there. So will the Jet.

Both first round series ended in 6 although it was far more surprising that the Hornets took the Lakers that far. The Lakers are perennially guilty of playing with inconsistent intensity and lost two games because of it. They’ll have to be better than that against a Mavs team that really, really wants to bring it to them. Dirk had a magnificent first round against a passionate but ultimately overwhelmed Blazers team and will have to be as good if not better in round 2. The Mavs have exciting depth, maybe even more so than the Lakers who, after Odom, don’t exactly have reliable options. Of course that hardly matters when Bynum is playing healthy and confidently.

And that’s exactly it. The struggles for the Lakers in round 1 can be chalked up to that CP3 fella in NAWLINS. The bigs dominated the Hornets even with Pau “softskillz” Gasol looking less of himself. Gasol, Bynum and Odom are going to have to be the difference against Nowitzki, Haywood and Chandler to move on.

And that shouldn’t be a problem. The series will run deep and the Mavs will score points but when all is said and done, I still don’t see the monkey leaving Dallas anytime soon. The Lakers own the Mavs psychologically and statistically. Kobe is hobbled by an ankle but real superstars don’t suck because of it. Lakers will draw first blood and get the step. This will be the type of series where the team that survives it is either the team that wins first or the team that is able to win back to back games at some point.

Lakers in 6

SKATE OR DIE... Round 2 of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

The turnaround on round 2 of the NHL playoffs is much quicker than I had anticipated. Suddenly, the second wave of match ups are here. No need to delay; let’s get straight to the mash.

Western Conference Semis

#5 Nashville Predators vs. #1 Vancouver Canucks

The first thing that jumps out at me in this matchup is a matter of emotional peaks. Teams hoping for deep postseason runs have to manage this phenomenon to keep a consistent edge for upwards of a month in order to win out. The question is how much of an effect does hitting such a high emotional peak have on the Canucks, several players of which have commented that winning their 1^st round match up with their nemesis Blackhawks in OT of game 7 was more exhilarating than the Canadian Olympic Gold Medal. Really? That’s not a good sign because there’s still a lot of hockey to be played. The ‘nucks struggled mightily on defense but that had a lot to do with a talented offensive corps for Chicago … something that Nashville does not particularly boast. They are defensively solid and have an excellent backstop but do not have the same scoring punch as Vancouver ’s first round opponent. I don’t think peaking so early emotionally is a good sign for the Canucks but its effects are not likely to be felt until the next round when they suit up against the winner of Detroit/San Jose.

For now, the Canucks will outskate, outscore and outlast the Preds in a little less time than it took them to be rid of their playoff monkey, Chicago . Look for Luongo to return to form against a soft offensive attack.

Canucks in 6

#3 Detroit Redwings vs. #2 San Jose Sharks

Ah yes. This playoff match up has been a favorite of mine since the mid 90s when a couple of upstart #8 Sharks teams made my life miserable as a young Redwings fan. A little back story for those who haven’t known me forever and know this already: I fell in love with hockey before the Sharks franchise came into being and at a time when Steve Yzerman (to this day, my favorite athlete of any sport ever) dominated the league with numbers matched only by the likes of Gretzky and Lemieux. The Redwings back then were known as the Dead Things but it didn’t matter because Stevie Y was awesome. Eventually, when the Sharks came into existence, there was a natural conflict of interest. On one hand, I was already a Redwings fan for several years and they were turning things around with stellar drafts of Lidstrom and Federov to complement Yzerman. The Sharks on the other hand sucked so, so terribly with the likes of Kelly Kisio and Pat Falloon (remember those guys? Hehe). I developed a slight disdain for the Sharks. That disdain turned into disgust when the Sharks started to get a little better, sneak into the playoffs and then knock off the top seeded Redwings. That passion remains for me to this day.

So what of this specific match up. Well, the main thing to note here is that the Wings are considerably more rested than they were last year when they came out of a 1^st round 7 game session with the Coyotes all beat up and drained just to get suplexed by what is still a very talented Sharks team. Truth is, they’re even better this year but going up against a better rested Wings team will prove to be an entirely different test. The Sharks are going to find Detroit ’s offense a lot more challenging than LA’s injury-riddled front line with the likes of Zetterberg and Franzen coming back from injury. The Wings are the best puck possession team in the NHL and will win the series if they dominate the tempo.

This is going to be one hell of a series as these two Western Conference powerhouses love to go at it. The Sharks are looking for that corner to turn and the Wings are looking to go about business as usual. My bets (and heavily biased opinion) are on the Wings outlasting the Sharks en route to the Western Conference Finals.

Wings in 6

Eastern Conference Semis

#5 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. #1 Washington Capitals

I don’t typically like to be wrong in my predicts (I wasn’t particularly happy about the nucks surviving the ruckus comeback by the Blackhawks) but I am perfectly fine with Tampa ousting the Pens. I had selected the Penguins mostly on their championship pedigree but I overestimated the effect of the Penguins defense in making up for the loss of Crosby and Malkin. That said, I should have stuck with my boy Stevie Y in his first year as GM of the Lightning. The Lightning were surprisingly solid on defense (though that could also be just the lack of Crosby and Malkin) while their offense relatively underperformed. Took a few games for Stamkos to get going but a fully functional Lightning team can roll out Stamkos, Lecavalier, Gagne and St. Louis like it’s nobody’s business. They’ll need them to all play extremely well to beat a Capitals team that is far more defensive minded and who focus on puck possession far more than they did in past years. They still have the offensive firepower they’ve always had with scorers like Ovie and Semin and company but they’re now playing with a new defensive resolve and are getting great goaltending.

So tough in fact that I think Tampa ’s run ends here when their weaknesses (generally speaking, defense and goaltending) are exposed by a very good Capitals team. I hate to pick against Stevie Y’s team again but the best team in the East is rolling straight to the Stanley Cup finals.

Caps in 6

#3 Boston Bruins vs. #2 Philadelphia Flyers

Can’t wait for this one, honestly. Incidentally, both of the series I’m most excited for are the 3v2 tilts with this one being maybe even a more difficult call than the one in the West. The Bruins just completed an epic series with their heated rivals from Canada so you know they’re pumped but the same pitfall that may inflict Vancouver with emotional peaks could sink the B’s against a potentially formidable Flyers team. Only problem for the Flyers is that messy 1^st round they had with Buffalo complete with Goaltender carousel, media jabbing, the loss of Jeff Carter and all in all, a disjointed, chaotic effort. But they made it out the series and now face a Bruins team that had some trouble of their own early in their series with the Habs finding it hard to score against a good defense and good goalie… and that isn’t likely to get any easier with the Flyers and their defense although another goaltender like Price will be hard to find, especially with the circus they have in goal in Philly.

The Flyers are gonna need to get their powerplay going as they’ve been absolutely awful on special teams which is uncharacteristic for them. Getting Pronger back should help that out a bit. I expect the Bruins to outlast Philly here. I don’t know if the goaltender situation for the Flyers is going to hold especially if the 1^st round triumph over Les Canadiens sparks the B’s into inspired play. I’m going with a long, arduous series but

Bruins in 7

dig it

Hardwood Faceplant (NBA Playoff 1st Round Predictions)

The 2011 NBA playoffs tip off soon. On the heels of my wildly popular [/sarcasm] NHL playoff predictions, I’m continuing this unprecedented use of my crystal ball, once again managing to, through pretense, predict what is gonna go down and HOW.

Dig it.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#8 Indiana Pacers vs. #1 Chicago Bulls

The Pacers come into this as fairly heavy underdogs. While it is really nice to see the Pacers get it together down the stretch and get in the postseason with an exciting young team, the Bulls have been one of the best 2^nd half stories this season with Rose stalking the inside track on MVP. The combination of Boozer and Noah (even in limited action this round) up front will give the Pacers (and whoever comes next, honestly) lots of trouble and the slew of scorers surrounding Rose are capable of putting up points when Rose attracts multiple defenders (which he will).

I was tempted to give the Pacers a game but this is most likely over in four. Bulls will move forward with relative ease.

Bulls in 4

#7 Philadelphia 76ers vs. #2 Miami Heat

The Sixers have been pretty good since starting the season off sluggishly and out of sync. However, the way the Heat have closed out the season, it doesn’t look promising for what should be a good Sixers team in upcoming seasons if they keep the core together. Right now, the Heat are getting contributions from the “other guys” making the work that Wade and LeBron do that much more infuriating for opponents. The Sixers might not even take one game in this one, either unless they are able to minimize Bibby and Miller and Chalmers and force the entire offense to go through only Lebron and D Wade. As for Bosh, this series gives him time to get back into the flow without needing him in order to advance. A very critical postseason “tuneup” for South Beach .

This should be a four or five game series at longest.

Heat in 5

#6 New York Knicks vs. #3 Boston Celtics

Things are not going well for Boston . I believe that a sports city that truly embraces its teams as a part of its culture has a dynamic relationship with its multiple teams. In other words, the Red Sox suck and right now, so do the Celtics who are struggling to resemble the team that early on in the season looked like a favorite to reach the finals. Since then, Perkins was shipped to the Western Conference, the guys they got in return haven’t really adjusted to the system, the Bulls have put together an impressive 2^nd half of the season and now even the Heat have overtaken them for the 2 spot. Suddenly, a first round matchup with a New York team that would love to bounce a Boston team looks like it might be a challenge. The key to the C’s after the Perk trade was that their aging bigs, Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal, would pick up the slack down low. As recent weeks would suggest, that plan isn’t working. Ray Allen isn’t getting looks and Pierce and Rondo are not finding much space in the paint to slash and operate. The Knicks on the other hand are finally getting some chemistry together between the new pieces and if Melo, Amar’e and Chauncey can play big, I wouldn’t count them out of anything.

Still, the Celtics are championship pedigree and Doc Rivers knows how to manage his studs, old and young. When all is said and done, the C’s are moving on to the next round.

Celtics in 6

#5 Atlanta Hawks vs. #4 Orlando Magic

There is not much that Al Horford and/or Josh Smith can do to slow down Dwight Howard except maybe foul him, harass him and if they can frustrate him enough to get him out of his game, they can maybe turn him into an overachieving Clark Kent. Otherwise, Superman is going to dominate inside and allow for the rest of the crew to rain jump shots from everywhere on the court. The Hawks just don’t resemble the team that no more than a couple of years ago looked like they had a bright future… now they’re looking like the wrong mix of pieces. They’re in the five spot and can score some points but so can the Magic who could still make a run at the conference championship if they pull the right matchups.

That run will start with an easy five game series against the mismatched Hawks

Magic in 5

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#8 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #1 San Antonio Spurs

If there was a bad 1^st round matchup for the top seeded Spurs, this is the one. They’ve historically had trouble with the Grizz, they were stumbling down the stretch since a torrid start and they may have lost Manu for a game or two if the hyperextended elbow needs some rest. Need more proof that the Grizz are in the perfect spot to pull a monumental upset? They rested their starters for the past handful of games as if to secure their position and their matchup. I’ve always felt that Zach Randolph was underrated and not given nearly as much credit as other double double grabbin big men in the league. However, Randolph swooped up 12 boards a game while leading a balanced offensive attack that includes Gay, Gasol, Mayo and Conley with 20 points a game. The Spurs will really need Manu’s points as he was their best offensive player in nearly every category.

If the Grizzlies can earn a split in San Antonio , they’re on the inside track to win the series. Oh snap son! I’m feelin’ bold! Hold me back!

Grizzlies in 7

#7 New Orleans Hornets vs. #2 Los Angeles Lakers

Unlike the Spurs, the Lakers were able to avoid their trap matchup. Instead of squaring off against the Blazers, the Lakers turned to Kobe to get ridonkulous at the end of regulation against the Kings and then handled them in the OT period to ensure they’d get the Hornets instead of a Blazers team that could give them trouble in the 1^st round. The Hornets back into this series without David West, with only CP3 and with the risk of igniting a dormant giant. Bynum should be ready for the series as it turns out his hyperextended knee isn’t all bad but it would not behoove the Lakers, if they find the going easy in the speak easy, to rest Bynum a bit for the next round.

The Lakers should easily handle the Hornets.

Lakers in 4

#6 Portland Trailblazers vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks

This is going to be an exciting series. The Mavs and Blazers split four meetings this year never more than by eight points and I don’t think this 1^st round matchup will really be any different. The Mavs are an elite finesse team that, when playing a fast paced, jump shooting contest, can win on any night with scorers like Dirk and Terry. The Mavs, though, don’t rebound well and don’t play defense particularly well either and that combo can spell trouble against a team that is also balanced on the offensive attack and is considerably better on the boards especially now with the addition of Gerald Wallace. If Brandon Royresembles his old self at ALL, the Blazers will be far more than just a tough out for the Mavs; they can make a serious run at the Western Conference title.

I watched the game between the Mavs and Lakers when Terry, Blake and eventually Matt Barnes all got chippy and kicked off the court. The outlook on the Mavericks, at least for me, since then has not been particularly optimistic.

Blazers in 6

#5 Denver Nuggets vs. #4 Oklahoma City Thunder

Great series. Best of the 1^st round, in my opinion; it’ll certainly be the most entertaining as almost everything else (with the exception of my bold Grizzlies pick) is a predictable lock. Most would not have thought so before hand but the Nuggets are a much better basketball team without Carmelo Anthony. In fact, I’d have to say that Melo’s departure did wonders on JR Smith’s maturity and it is clear that the responsibility has focused his game to the point the Nuggets come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the West. There is a balanced attack, tough gritty play in the paint and much more activity defensively. Melo who? However, as sexy a pick as the Nuggets would be in this scenario, the fact that they face the Thunder makes a Nuggets upset much harder to get behind. Truthfully, I think that he Thunder, outside of the Lakers of course, are the favorite to go to the Finals and will dominate the Nuggets down low. Durant is the second best player in the Western Conference field and Westbrook has elevated himself to elite point guard status. The addition of Perkins cannot be overstated; his presence instantly gives the Thunder the best big man combo (Perk and Ibaka) outside of a healthy Bynum and motivated Gasol. And that isn’t to mention the slew of excellent role players that litter this roster.

There’ll be plenty of fireworks in this series. There may be stretches early on in the series where there may be a little doubt but when all is said and done, it’ll be the Thunder that are moving on.

Thunder in 6

And there you have it. The 1^st round is always the easiest to call. Next round is where the real work begins as actual personnel matchups start to matter a lot more. But for now, enjoy my brilliance (rofl lulz) and let me know what you think!

DIG IT.

Center ice, son

When you’ve been away from something for a long time, you tend to approach it again with a certain apprehension that perhaps, unlike a bicycle, it’s not as easy to ride again. Writing is really no different. Or at least I think so as I'm sitting here with the proverbial writer’s block towering above me like a slab of stone worthy of a Giza pyramid.

That’s when jumping right in and writing whatever comes to mind becomes the clearest solution.

A lot has happened in the sports world since I last signed off, early in the last NFL season (including the litigious wake of a collective bargaining agreement that turns out is as elusive as the fountain of youth and that has already resulted in a lockout and a decertification of the players’ union... but that's for another time). 

I’ve grown restless and my fingers hurt. And what better way to knock off the rust than with my trusty (dusty) playoff prognosticator?

The NBA playoffs are around the corner but first things first; the NHL playoffs are set to tee off tomorrow. This is usually around the time the whole thing is usually knocked onto its head. And I’m here to tell you how!

Western Conference

#8 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #1 Vancouver Canucks

At first glance, a non-discerning eye won’t notice how much of a trap matchup this is for the top seed. The Hawks barely snuck in, needing a flustering meltdown by the Dallas Stars to qualify. On the other hand, the Canucks are practically wire to wire finishers with a meaty 117 point season.

Despite Vancouver's regular season success, the Blackhawks have something the Canucks lack and that is the swagger of experience especially being the defending champs. In fact, I’m going to go as far as to say that the Hawks are likely to come out of this round after a gruesome full tilt 6-gamer or 7-gamer… bruised and lacerated.  Remember also that it was these same Blackhawks that ousted the Canucks the last two seasons as well so while one can see the proverbial monkey on the back being possibly removed this spring, one can also see how the Canucks can fold under the psychological pressure that the defending champs will certainly bring.

The Blackhawks have a very balanced offensive attack with a lot of its firepower coming from the point but with enough big, talented bodies down around the crease to give even a goalie of Roberto Luongo's caliber a little bit of trouble. Goaltending is a concern for Chicago again (unless Crawford pulls a Niemi) as well as overall defense (another area that Vancouver is vastly superior) but I give a bold edge to the defending champs to pull the 1^st round 8 over 1 upset. 

Blackhawks in 7

#7 Los Angeles Kings vs. #2 San Jose Sharks

A good ol’ Pacific division rivalry in the 1^st round and were it not for the laundry list of injuries on the front end for LA, I’d call another long shot upset. The Sharks are too good offensively, have a suddenly very effective Antii Niemi (guess last postseason wasn’t a fluke huh?) and if they get on the power play, goodnight.

The Kings are a team on the rise and, with a full cast, are exciting to watch but being a defensive team with injuries up front is too inviting for a turtle effect and especially against a team like the Sharks that led the league in shots per game, that also spells for long, long games for Jonathan Quick and company.

The Kings are tough as nails on the blue line, have great goaltending and will give the Sharks and their big three, Marleau, Thornton and Heatley all they can handle but one has to wonder how long you can hang in a 7 game series relying only on timely scoring and out of this world defense.

Sharks in 5

#6 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #3 Detroit Redwings

The Wings and Coyotes teed up for one hell of a series last year, one so taxing and intense that it all but drained the Wings going into their matchup with the Sharks that they eventually would lose.

The current loss of Zetterberg can complicate things for the Wings offensively but only in terms of puck possession; there are enough scorers on every line that getting goals from other sources such as Bertuzzi, Holmstrom or Cleary shouldn’t be a problem. However, the Wings live and die with their ability to possess and control the puck throughout a contest. If they do this, they win.

This is not to discredit or devalue the Yotes. After all, they have a hot goalie in Bryz and a consistent, albeit star-less attack on offense and a serviceable defense and took these same Wings to the brink last year before being bounced 6-1 in the final contest. They are a mediocre team on paper but their homogeneity make them deceptively so; they are actually quite active and with consistent play from leaders such as Vrbata and Yandle, they can steal one.

That said, the Wings are too veteran savvy and have playoff monster performers such as Franzen who can go off for bunches-o-goals. Howard has been much better than he gets credit for and Lidstrom might play until he’s 80. Wings should be able to survive the first round and get Zetterberg in time for round 2 which would spell trouble for the rest of the Western Conference field. [/bias]

Wings in 6

#5 Nashville Predators vs. #4 Anaheim Ducks

Offense over defense? The Ducks and Preds couldn’t possibly be more different. The Ducks will skate and score, the Preds will hunker down and grind out defensive clinics. Who will win?

The Ducks come in with the league’s top scorer in Corey Perry who had a monster 2^nd half and comes into the playoffs as hot as any other pure scorer in the NHL. The Ducks offense doesn’t stop there, of course,with the likes of Ryan, Getzlaf and Selanne but past that is a roster full of hard checking grinders and middle of the pack defenders.

The Preds may not have the scoring but they have gritty, tough defenders like Weber and Suter and possibly one of the top netminders in the world in Pekka Rinne.

Look for the Ducks to try and jump on the Preds early and keep them and their unintimidating offense at bay. If the Preds can consistently get early leads, they’ll be the team to move forward. I don’t see them having enough firepower to outlast Anaheim unless Pekka Rinne can get hot and steal one. With home ice in the OC, count the Ducks moving forward.

Ducks in 6

Eastern Conference

#8 New York Rangers vs. #1 Washington Capitals

You know what’s scary for the Caps? The last three meetings between these two have resulted in a 15-1 goals edge for the Rangers. That doesn’t bode well for a team that has great scoring (albeit not as elite as it was a year ago) but shaky, questionable, platoon goaltending.

That said, the Rangers really don’t have much punch and at least not enough to make a deep run in the playoffs or even this round. They’re missing Ryan Callahan, have a not so 100% Marian Gaborik (then again when is he ever) and a slew of role scorers who will try to match goals with the likes of Ovie, Semin and Backstrom. The Rangers are a defensive team with young studs like Staal and Girardi on the blue line who will have to play out of their heads to keep the Caps off the score sheet. And of course there’s Lundqvist and he’s as good as it gets between the pipes.

The Caps were stunned pretty hard by the Habs last year but that team was vibing at the right time and took their Cinderella run all the way until midnight struck in Philly. I don’t see the Rangers with a similar run or a similar vibe making it, as tempting as it is, difficult to call them for the upset here. The Caps should be able to get out of this round without too much incident.

Capitals in 6

#7 Buffalo Sabres vs. #2 Philadelphia Flyers

Well, here are two teams doing two totally different things right now. The Sabres are winning games pretty frequently and the Flyers are bumbling down the stretch playing .500 hockey. So what to make of it?

The Flyers have much to be optimistic about regardless of the last several weeks of their season. After all, they have nearly a dozen capable scorers (and by capable we mean very good) and possibly the best defense in the Eastern Conference playoff field. Their real questions lie between the pipes (again) with no clear cut netminder and no really comforting or encouraging option. They’ve struggled to win games as of late due to shoddy overall play but come playoff time, I’m not counting against them to make another deep run if not repeat as Eastern champs.

The Sabres have looked really good the second half of the season and of course have maybe the best goaltender in the world playing at the top of his game. They lack elite scoring punch but play balanced, consistent hockey. They don’t really need much if Miller plays insanely well; enough offense out of the likes of Vanek and Stafford can get them out of the 1^st round with a monumental upset.

But my money is on Philly to roll. Danny Briere is a Sabre killer and there are just too many weapons on this team for it to stay dormant for four games out of seven. Unless of course the goaltending is awful and then it doesn’t really matter. This will be a great series in my estimation and might go the distance but

Flyers in 6

#6 Montreal Canadiens vs. #3 Boston Bruins

Oh yippee dee! We have ourselves a Habs/Bruins matchup! Boy, they don’t get any chippier than this. Welcome back to Original Six facesmashing, folks, it’s gonna be fun. What’s not to like about two teams as old as time beating each other up because they quite frankly despise their opponents, their logo and everything it stands for?

More importantly, are you going to tell me that the massive WWE meltdown earlier this year between these two teams and the ensuing retaliations are not going to pepper this 1^st round with all sorts of pleasantries? It’ll be fun to watch but honestly, that’s where the intrigue stops.

The Canadiens don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Bruins (or anybody else) on the scoreboard and their defense is broken with injuries. Carey Price is pretty good in goal but Tim Thomas across the pond is even better. The way these two stack up, the games will be entertaining and violent but the results will be one sided. And Zdeno Chara. Enuff said?

Of course, the Habs can pull a 2010 with Cammalleri and co. playing out of their heads but I just don’t see Cindy #2 happening any time soon. But watch this stuff anyway cuz it might get bloody!

Bruins in 5

#5 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #4 Tampa Bay Lightning

This not being quite the Penguins team that dominated the Eastern Conference for the past couple of years and certainly not as explosive without Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, they may surprise with their defense, perhaps tops in the conference. Conversely, the Lightning can light up the scoreboard but, sadly, also have a knack for letting their opponents do the same.

This will be an interesting series to watch in that it’s entirely possible that the Penguins’ playoff savvy shore up the gaps in their scoring with their two best scorers unavailable indefinitely. The Penguins can win a series if it comes down to intangibles and special teams although if their defense is unable to slow down Tampa’s scorers, it won’t really matter at all when they can’t keep up.

Still, the edge has to go to a team that has been a dominant force in the East for the last several years to make it work some way.

Penguins in 5

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alright that's it for now. not a bad start. let's see how we do

see ya soon!