And this is why they play it out on the field. I went an
unimpressive 2-2 during Wild Card weekend and how can you blame me? Three of
the games were decided by three points or less. The fourth was an inexplicable meltdown
by a heavy favorite. The Chiefs/Colts game was probably one of the best playoff
football games I’ve ever seen. The Saints/Eagles consistently felt like the
team with the ball last was going to win… and that’s exactly how it turned out.
The Niners Icy win at Lambeau was a very tough game to lose and an impressive
one to have pulled off, sending the Niners on a very nice trajectory. The
Chargers spirited win over the heavily favored Bengals in Cincinnati may have
indeed been an inexplicable playoff meltdown on one side of the field but has
to also be seen as one of the tougher, grittier show-ups of the first round on
the part of San Diego’s. Playoff football isn’t for the faint of heart, eh?
Now we find ourselves in the Divisional Round with
another four excellent matchups in store and don’t be shocked if we have even
better football around the bend.
Saints at Seahawks
I’m not going to outright write the Saints off. Brees was
less than stellar in windy, cold Philadelphia against a decent but scary
defense and was able to eke out a win. As impressive as it was that the Saints
could win on the road in bad conditions given their proclivity for being a
home/dome team, they get those same challenges ten-fold when they travel to
Seattle where it is colder, wetter and even tougher to win… and against a much
better defense.
The Seahawks aren’t an explosive offense in the style of,
say, the Saints but they have scored upwards of 30 and 40 points during the
regular season including a 34-7 thrashing of these same Saints in Seattle . As
we’ve learned over the years, it is hard to bet against the Brees/Payton team
and Payton’s return has resumed New Orleans as one of the NFC Powers. However,
this is a tall order. The Seahawks are looking for their sixth consecutive
playoff win at home and the 16th of the last 17th overall
at Qwest. Queue the 12th man. It will be loud, cold and rough.
Seahawks
Colts at Patriots
There is something truly special about Andrew Luck’s game
and he’s barely getting started. He’s scary good and showed the Chiefs just how
much so. That said, he isn’t going up against Andy Reid and Alex Smith anymore.
Bill Belichick is the master of gameplanning top flight QBs into mediocrity.
Will the Colts resort to the run if that happens? Furthermore, one has to
wonder if Indy’s defense isn’t going to get absolutely shredded by Tom Brady.
The last time Brady and Luck went head to head, the Pats blasted the Colts with
a sixty burger, 59-24. Sure, he doesn’t have the weapons he’d normally like to
have but he does have a nice group of running backs and a lot of playoff moxie.
Any way you look at it, the Colts also gave up a ton of points to a Chiefs
offense last week that didn’t even have Jamaal Charles going. If Indy is to
pull off a win in Foxborough, it would have to be behind a brilliant
performance by Robert Mathis. He has chased Tom Brady plenty of times through
the years and Brady’s been sacked more this year than he has since he was
fresh. Oh and Mathis had a RIDICULOUS 19.5 sacks on the year.
It’s possible that the Colts fall behind early again and
are forced to rely on Luck’s arm and theatrics. If it’s close late, it’ll be
hard to root (or bet) against the kid. However, they can’t afford to fall behind
by more than two scores quickly; the Patriots won’t let the Colts back in the
same way the Chiefs did.
Patriots
Niners at Panthers
This won’t be a popular pick. The Niners are favored as
the road team which isn’t surprising considering they are on a seven game win
streak, on the verge of a third consecutive NFC Championship, and have one of
the league’s best defenses. The odds are surprising only because the Panthers
also have one of the top defensive units in the game including the league’s top
pass rush and one of its most talented linebackers, and have one of the most
dynamic and exciting QBs in the game in Cam Newton.
The Niners will be pressed to get it done on the ground
against the Panthers who are very tough against the run and especially at home.
This means Kaepernick has to have a much stronger game than he
did the last time these two played. The concern for the Panthers on offense is
whether or not Steve Smith will be limited by injury to where he won’t be the
difference maker Cam needs him to be. The Panthers have sailed beneath the
radar for the most part due to having a fairly unassuming offense with the
occasional highlight play typically courtesy of Cam. This doesn’t mean they can’t
score.
It’ll be a close contest, of course. Lots of great
defensive plays on both sides. But Cam is better than Kaep and that will show.
Panthers
Chargers at
Broncos
Nearly every year a team gets hot at the right time,
sneaks into the playoffs and makes an unpredictable run. And it usually starts
with defense. For the Chargers, this is fairly good news; after all, it is
behind their suddenly effective unit (that’s been getting healthier down the
stretch) that they are stringing must-wins. While the Broncos are certainly one
of the best teams in the game, the Chargers have to be thrilled their opponent is
such a familiar foe. They just beat them recently so it’s entirely possible
they can repeat the feat (especially if their defense, led by Eric Weddle,
frustrates Peyton and the Broncos again) but will attempt to do it without a
major part of why they won in the first place; Ryan Mathews.
Last week, the Chargers imposed their will in the run
game upon one of the best front sevens in the NFL with backup Ronnie Brown and
Rich Ohrnberger who stepped in to hold it down at Center when Hardwick went
down. That may not get it done against Denver as the Cincinnati defense looked
out of sorts all day anyway and there’s no guarantee Ohrnberger and Brown get
it done again.
The previous match up was a low scoring, defensive
affair. This one won’t be. It’s true that the Chargers not only play the
Broncos well but play Manning rather well also (as exemplified by Weddle who
has picked Manning off three times in his career). The Chargers will have to
keep up with Denver as the Manning machine scores just shy of 30 points… with
the Charger offense struggling to balance itself without the run and unable to
keep up on the scoreboard.
Broncos
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