Super Bowl XLVIII

Another NFL season is nearly in the books and we are left with just two teams, the offensive juggernaut Denver Broncos led by first ballot Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and the impenetrable defense and mental toughness of the Seattle Seahawks.

Undoubtedly, most everybody has heard all the assessments and seen all the numbers, watched all the preview shows, listened to all the talk shows and know everything about the upcoming Super Bowl game except for one thing: who is going to win.

Well that is where I can help you, net traveler.

First thing that jumps out at me is the weather. Any fear of snow and frigid temps is now gone although the game will probably settle in around 40 degrees for most of the evening with only a slight chance of rain. While the weather would give an advantage to the Seahawks who focus their offensive attack on the ground and who capitalize on mistakes when their defense is on the field to turn the tables on their opponents, it won't be wet enough or cold enough to thwart Peyton. I still expect two picks from Manning although I'm not sure that alone will determine the outcome of the game.

What'll be interesting is how the time of possession battle will be won. Marshawn Lynch is certainly one of the best running backs in the league at churning yards and keeping the clock and the chains moving in the right direction and will have plenty of running room against the Broncos who've been playing better on that side of the ball of late but also haven't faced a back of his caliber. His effectiveness will unlock the Seahawk passing attack and that is about the only way they'll be able to keep up with Peyton and the Broncos on the scoreboard. If Beast Mode can't open up that passing game and allow Wilson and company (and maybe even most importantly, Percy Harvin and his ability to create explosive gains in a multitude of spots within a formation), then the Seahawks will struggle to score the 30 points needed to win this game. There's no doubt that the Seahawk defense can hold the Broncos to under 30 and maybe even closer to 20 than Denver is accustomed to but it won't matter if the Hawks aren't putting up any points of their own.

Truth is, the Seahawks offense has been anything but reliable so far in the postseason with Russell Wilson looking off balance for most of every game they've played. To his credit and ultimately a direct reflection of Seattle's coach, Pete Carroll, they have remained fiercely unrattled and focused and it has allowed them to hang tough when the sledding got tough. They'll have to be that way once again as they are going to get punched in the nose a couple times at the least by Denver's record setting, explosive offense.

All that to say the game will come down to how far the Seahawks are behind in the fourth quarter when they tap into their reserve energy tanks. They will be amped at kickoff and maybe much more so than the Broncos as that is kind of how they roll. If they are unable to sustain that energy into the fourth when they find themselves trailing by 10-14 points and in need of some miracle working by their hardnosed QB Wilson, they will run out of juice and lose. If they can stay even-keel through out the contest and keep it to within 14 points, there's a solid chance they eke it out.

My call is that they do. I love Peyton and will be rooting for him personally as I feel that he is already, even without this victory, possibly the greatest QB of all time, a second ring would only cement it. But as a Raider fan, I cannot support his Broncos lol and the Seahawks are simply further removed from being a dire rival of ours so I am slightly more partial to them. Either way, I subscribe to the defensive side of the ball in almost every sport and the Seahawks are simply the best with their throwback, over the top defensive intensity and elite skill level. I think Denver has finally met their match in chilly, cloudy New Jersey. Homer Simpson called it 19-14 Broncos way back in 2005 but...

Seahawks 31 - Broncos 27

NFL Conference Championships

3-1 last week. Not bad considering I was certainly gambling by taking the inexperienced, underdog Panthers in a game the Niners most certainly were primed to win.

I'll have to keep it relatively short and sweet this week even though the match ups are considerably more exciting.

Patriots at Broncos

Brady vs. Manning. Part 500 or whatever. The last iteration of this epic rivalry was a frigid Patriot win that saw them storm back from 24 down to eke it out in overtime. Here's what you need to know for this game. The weather will unlikely play a significant role which means that the game will have to be played in the air and not just on the ground as New England was able to do last week against Indy. Look for the Broncos to rush out to a quick lead behind their killer passing attack (healthier than it was on November 24th) and the Patriots will have to pass in order to keep up. Even with Peyton's ability to make the deep throw, the Bronco offense thrives between the hashes and the Patriots have a strong defense in there and if they are able to jam up Thomas and Welker, they may be able to slow this offense down enough to make a difference. The game can either be a 31-17 Bronco win where the Patriots simply run out of time clawing back into it or a 34-31 late game heroic Prater kick. Either way, I think Denver is going to the Super Bowl even though I was feeling New England for most of the past week. It's hard to bet against the most explosive offense in the history of the game in such a spot at home. 

Broncos

49ers at Seahawks
What really needs to be said here? We've seen these two play twice a year every year and twice again this year in what were two very spirited contests. The Seahawks, as expected, dominated the Seattle game and the Niners won a tough one 19-17 in San Francisco a couple months later. Part III is clearly a deciduous game in more sense than just in terms of the conference championship as it also decides the victor of their personal rivalry that runs all the way from their head coaches to the symbols on their helmet. As for what to expect in tonight's game, it's quite simple really: if the refs call the game tight and are generous with the flag on pass interference and defensive holding, then the score will be run up into the 20s and maybe even the 30s each, the Seahawks losing the advantage that their physical, imposing secondary has and the Niners have a strong chance of winning. If the refs don't call everything, the Seahawks will dominate the receivers, both teams will rely mostly on the run and it becomes a Lynch vs. Gore tilt in which the advantage, though slight, will be in Seattle's favor and they win a low scoring, defensive game. Both teams have very talented offensive lines... but Seattle's is very heavily penalized at times and, again, the whistle could determine the outcome. My gut reaction tells me Seattle wins this game and not just because of their notorious 12th man. The Niners have been getting it done on the road all postseason long and that is quite impressive but I'm not sure they can overcome the top defense in the NFL for a fourth consecutive road playoff win (Week 17 was a must win).
Seahawks

So there you have it. The league's best Offense vs. the league's best Defense in the Super Bowl. 
dig it.

NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend

And this is why they play it out on the field. I went an unimpressive 2-2 during Wild Card weekend and how can you blame me? Three of the games were decided by three points or less. The fourth was an inexplicable meltdown by a heavy favorite. The Chiefs/Colts game was probably one of the best playoff football games I’ve ever seen. The Saints/Eagles consistently felt like the team with the ball last was going to win… and that’s exactly how it turned out. The Niners Icy win at Lambeau was a very tough game to lose and an impressive one to have pulled off, sending the Niners on a very nice trajectory. The Chargers spirited win over the heavily favored Bengals in Cincinnati may have indeed been an inexplicable playoff meltdown on one side of the field but has to also be seen as one of the tougher, grittier show-ups of the first round on the part of San Diego’s. Playoff football isn’t for the faint of heart, eh?

Now we find ourselves in the Divisional Round with another four excellent matchups in store and don’t be shocked if we have even better football around the bend.

Saints at Seahawks

I’m not going to outright write the Saints off. Brees was less than stellar in windy, cold Philadelphia against a decent but scary defense and was able to eke out a win. As impressive as it was that the Saints could win on the road in bad conditions given their proclivity for being a home/dome team, they get those same challenges ten-fold when they travel to Seattle where it is colder, wetter and even tougher to win… and against a much better defense.

The Seahawks aren’t an explosive offense in the style of, say, the Saints but they have scored upwards of 30 and 40 points during the regular season including a 34-7 thrashing of these same Saints in Seattle . As we’ve learned over the years, it is hard to bet against the Brees/Payton team and Payton’s return has resumed New Orleans as one of the NFC Powers. However, this is a tall order. The Seahawks are looking for their sixth consecutive playoff win at home and the 16^th of the last 17^th overall at Qwest. Queue the 12^th man. It will be loud, cold and rough.

Seahawks

Colts at Patriots

There is something truly special about Andrew Luck’s game and he’s barely getting started. He’s scary good and showed the Chiefs just how much so. That said, he isn’t going up against Andy Reid and Alex Smith anymore. Bill Belichick is the master of gameplanning top flight QBs into mediocrity. Will the Colts resort to the run if that happens? Furthermore, one has to wonder if Indy’s defense isn’t going to get absolutely shredded by Tom Brady. The last time Brady and Luck went head to head, the Pats blasted the Colts with a sixty burger, 59-24. Sure, he doesn’t have the weapons he’d normally like to have but he does have a nice group of running backs and a lot of playoff moxie. Any way you look at it, the Colts also gave up a ton of points to a Chiefs offense last week that didn’t even have Jamaal Charles going. If Indy is to pull off a win in Foxborough, it would have to be behind a brilliant performance by Robert Mathis. He has chased Tom Brady plenty of times through the years and Brady’s been sacked more this year than he has since he was fresh. Oh and Mathis had a RIDICULOUS 19.5 sacks on the year.

It’s possible that the Colts fall behind early again and are forced to rely on Luck’s arm and theatrics. If it’s close late, it’ll be hard to root (or bet) against the kid. However, they can’t afford to fall behind by more than two scores quickly; the Patriots won’t let the Colts back in the same way the Chiefs did.

Patriots

Niners at Panthers

This won’t be a popular pick. The Niners are favored as the road team which isn’t surprising considering they are on a seven game win streak, on the verge of a third consecutive NFC Championship, and have one of the league’s best defenses. The odds are surprising only because the Panthers also have one of the top defensive units in the game including the league’s top pass rush and one of its most talented linebackers, and have one of the most dynamic and exciting QBs in the game in Cam Newton.

The Niners will be pressed to get it done on the ground against the Panthers who are very tough against the run and especially at home. This means Kaepernick has to have a much stronger game than he did the last time these two played. The concern for the Panthers on offense is whether or not Steve Smith will be limited by injury to where he won’t be the difference maker Cam needs him to be. The Panthers have sailed beneath the radar for the most part due to having a fairly unassuming offense with the occasional highlight play typically courtesy of Cam. This doesn’t mean they can’t score.

It’ll be a close contest, of course. Lots of great defensive plays on both sides. But Cam is better than Kaep and that will show.

Panthers

Chargers at Broncos

Nearly every year a team gets hot at the right time, sneaks into the playoffs and makes an unpredictable run. And it usually starts with defense. For the Chargers, this is fairly good news; after all, it is behind their suddenly effective unit (that’s been getting healthier down the stretch) that they are stringing must-wins. While the Broncos are certainly one of the best teams in the game, the Chargers have to be thrilled their opponent is such a familiar foe. They just beat them recently so it’s entirely possible they can repeat the feat (especially if their defense, led by Eric Weddle, frustrates Peyton and the Broncos again) but will attempt to do it without a major part of why they won in the first place; Ryan Mathews.

Last week, the Chargers imposed their will in the run game upon one of the best front sevens in the NFL with backup Ronnie Brown and Rich Ohrnberger who stepped in to hold it down at Center when Hardwick went down. That may not get it done against Denver as the Cincinnati defense looked out of sorts all day anyway and there’s no guarantee Ohrnberger and Brown get it done again.

The previous match up was a low scoring, defensive affair. This one won’t be. It’s true that the Chargers not only play the Broncos well but play Manning rather well also (as exemplified by Weddle who has picked Manning off three times in his career). The Chargers will have to keep up with Denver as the Manning machine scores just shy of 30 points… with the Charger offense struggling to balance itself without the run and unable to keep up on the scoreboard.

Broncos

NFL Wild Card Weekend

Wait, what’s this? Gone since Week 6, back in time for the playoffs? What is this madness…

Honestly, I’ve only got myself to blame but life is also sort of at fault. Amidst playing a few handfuls of roles inside and outside the realm of plausibility, I was still able to manage five fantasy football teams, four more successfully than one… one more successfully than the other three. I’ve of course followed the season very closely and just couldn’t pass up this opportunity to let y’all in on my crystal ball of football future.

Or my best guess.

This Wild Card weekend starts with

Chiefs at Colts
So let me get this straight. The Chiefs, who started the season on a tear and then withered down the stretch trading wins and losses (including a 23-7 shalacking AT Arrowhead), face a suddenly hot Colts team that has won four of their last five including that stunner in KC. Let’s be fair though: they’ve beaten three divisional rivals, two of which are pretty bad and one which is mediocre at best. They had two challenging opponents, got tore up by one (the Bengals) and beat the other who was ravaged by injuries and mired in a slump (their opponents this weekend).

Sure, the Chiefs are getting considerably healthier but without Tamba Hali out there, I am not sure that they’ll be as impactful on defense against Andrew Luck as they’ll need to be to win in Indy. Suddenly the fact they were unable to hold onto control of the AFC West after the bye week makes all the difference in the world. The Colts are playing much better defense than they had all year and are going to be fired up at home. They also don’t make many mistakes on the other side of the ball (lead the league with the least turnovers committed).

The Chiefs are so infinitesimally favored that I can hardly call this a true upset but the Colts ought to win this one at home. The Chiefs should be commended for the sharp turnaround they made this year with Alex Smith and new head coach Andy Reid but this is where the train stops for 2013/2014.
Colts

Saints at Eagles
Like the Chiefs, stumbling down the stretch ensured the Saints would have to win on the road, something they aren’t particularly good at doing (they only were able to barely beat a Tampa team that isn’t good, barely beat an Atlanta team that also isn’t good and a Chicago team that doesn’t play defense). A 8-0 mark at the Superdome says it all. Conversely, they now have to travel to Philly who, after starting the season rough at 3-5 and beleaguered with injuries and bad defense, have gone 7-1 while blowing pretty much everybody out of the water and really playing much better defense than their boxscores would indicate.

Ok so I get it, Nick Foles has been outstanding. The kid’s been absolutely on fire and it looks like the tear is going to last at least another weekend in January. The Saints are great at avoiding giving up big plays which is the bread and butter of this Eagles offense with the abilities of DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy to rip big gains and scores. I don’t think this does anything but keep their point total under 30. Maybe. But I don ‘t know if it’ll be enough.

The Eagles are going to move on to the next round.
Eagles

Chargers at Bengals
The Chargers sure are fortunate to be here. They barely survived the Chiefs’ second team and did so on a couple of questionable calls/no-calls… AND they got all the help they needed from other teams winning and not winning games they needed to win or not win in order for the Bolts to sneak in. And on top of that they draw possibly the most balanced team in the AFC field in their house. Not a good look.

Still, the beauty of the game is that, on any given Sunday, anybody can win if they play hard and well enough. So it stands to be proven whether the Chargers who’ve flourished in the McCoy system and finally received the sort of season out of Ryan Mathews they envisioned when first drafting him can make a run at the Super Bowl running on fumes and house money. That said, as hot as the Chargers have been down the stretch, they do run into a team in the Bengals that is even more so and has possibly the best defense in the AFC, a strong running game and an underrated passing game. Like the Saints, the Bengals are undefeated at home. Unlike the Saints, they get to play this round at home and as a result, I like their chances a lot more. They come in having won five of their last six including a low scoring struggle in San Diego a month ago.

The emergence of the running game for the Chargers has been the revelation for them down the stretch and stopping that is where Cincy excels. Dalton played poorly in their last meeting but should do much better at home in what could be Cincinnati’s first playoff win since I was TEN. Against San Diego’s terribly secondary, that is a strong possibility.
Bengals

Niners at Packers
The Niners are the better all around squad here, no doubt. They’re built for postseason success with strong defense, an emphasis on the ground game and a game manager QB with multiple receiving options. Where they might run into trouble is playing on the road in one of the toughest places for any team to win; legendary, icy Lambeau. The Pack got their super stud QB back last week and A-Rod rewarded Packer nation for their patience during his absence (and their curious survival of the NFC North while the Bears and Lions fumbled away opportunity after opportunity to take hold of the division) with gutsy fourth down conversions, his trademark game management and, of course, a win against the Bears.

They are vulnerable defensively which is really where their only visible weakness remains. Eddie Lacy is as good a rookie running back as we’ve seen in a couple years and finally gives this offense the balance it has long needed. Getting Randall Cobb back was also huge for this offense as they look to take their fortuitous playoff berth to the next round.

It won’t be easy, though. There may be questions about Colin Kaepernick’s follow up campaign and his inability to show the same confidence in using his legs to complement his arm as he had last year but this Packer defense doesn’t stop many folks. Worse yet for the Pack is the fact that the Niner defense, in the likely frigid conditions of Lambeau, is not the sieve that the Bears defense was and while he shook off some of the rust from a seven game layoff, one has to wonder if he’s shaken off enough for a critical, challenging playoff win.

A road game at Green Bay in Icy conditions normally wouldn’t bode well for a Kaepernick led offense in my mind but I have a feeling they pull it out in a tightly contested, low scoring affair that’ll be a treat for all of us.
Niners

NFL Week 6 Picks

Rollin' with a slightly different style than usual... a low key, late night mad dash to the well.

Let's see,

Bears over Jets
As I had expected, the Bears were a bit too much for the Jets in Chicago. Obviously the Jets made a run late but, all in all, their inability to do anything about the Cutler-to-Marshall express was their expected downfall.

Bengals at Bills
The Bengals still have to show us something in the passing game that will validate the preseason hype. They run the ball pretty well actually, the rookie Bernard coming in at a 4.6 ypc clip. If they feed him the rock more and untrack that passing attack, they can start to roll through their schedule. The Bills have been spirited but without Manuel, they're as good as dead in this one.
Bills

Lions at Browns
Even if the Lions get Megatron back, he won't be 100%. Weeden has a rare opportunity to salvage what he looked at one point to have started this pre-season as a result of Hoyer's misfortune. I think he capitalizes on this opportunity.
Browns

Raiders at Chiefs
Call me a crazy homer all you want but the Raiders are better than anyone, including most of Raider nation, were expecting them to be. They may be getting their running backs for this game. And while the Chiefs are one of the early season surprises at 5-0, the combined record of their opponents is 7-19. Behind a steady attack on the ground, the Raiders can at worst make this interesting.
Raiders

Panthers at Vikings
First off, RIP. Secondly, there should be a lot of noise and controversy on whether or not AP ought to play in this game. Either way, he will be out there and probably running with a great deal of spirit. Any initial thought that the Panthers would finally get that game from Cam Newton they've been waiting for is now gone because it's almost a lock the Vikes win at home against a team that can't seem to get their offense untracked.
Vikings

Steelers at Jets
The Jets are better than I thought they'd be. Pitts has not looked good enough to win football games this year. The two squads are very similar to each other although I like what the Jets are doing with their up-and-coming offense versus what the Steelers are doing with their fading-away offense. And the Jets are at home.
Jets

Eagles at Bucs
What happened to that fancy Chip Kelly offense?? I'm not sure Foles is the guy but I think he's functional enough in this offense to be successful against the Bucs who've already hit reset button by jettisoning Freeman. Which reminds me: how does an organization not assess a prospect's attention and focus issues prior to handing them the keys to the city and better yet, put forth the effort to help him with it?
Eagles

Packers at Ravens
The Packers are the toughest match the Ravens have drawn since getting spanked on opening night by the Broncos. Unfortunately for them, the same sort of paddling is due up albeit not nearly as bad. The Packers are coming out of the bye and are going to need to win to keep up with the Bears.
Packers

Rams at Texans
Neither of these teams is anything to write home about. Still, I think the Texans have more upside overall and because of their talent should pull through. The Rams on the other hand can't seem to get any kind of offense going and it's kinda pathetic given the fact they have the weapons.
Texans

Jags at Broncos
What's there to say here anyway? The Broncos can put up 70 points if they wanted to. Question is when they stop playing and protect Manning from some nonsense, unnecessary injury.
Broncos

Titans at Seahawks
The Titans are a surprise this year and this game would have been ten times better were Jake Locker out there. That said, this is in Seattle, the Seahawks are coming off their first loss and that's just the wrong place for the Titans to be right now.
Seahawks

Saints at Patriots
The Pats have been very stubborn this season inspite of the injuries and still might not have Gronk back. Their defense is pretty good but how good will it be against Brees and co.? The Saints are tough on both sides of the ball this year too. Tough to bet against them at this point.
Saints

Cards at Niners
Last week, the Niners finally got the ground game going over the past two weeks and are winning because of it. Right now, Kaepernick is effective as a game manager and the recipe that brought the Niners to prominence is working again. Which means the Cards and their turnover prone offense is in trouble regardless of their record.
Niners

Redskins at Cowboys
Ah yes, the ol' classic. Cowboys won't be merciful this week even if RGIII comes out of the bye rejuvenated and with purpose. They won a game they shouldn't have in Oakland and have otherwise looked bad. The Cowboys were good enough to go toe to toe with possibly the best offense in all of football. Their defense may be the only thing that makes RGIII look like he's gettin back into it.
Cowboys

Colts at Chargers
The most glaring thing about the Chargers' loss last week was how vulnerable they were in the air. They were relatively tough on the run but got torched in the air by an average-at-best passing team even if the Raiders are on the upswing. Andrew Luck and co. are a bit better. I still think the Chargers bounce back and play the Colts to the end of the line here. I just don't see them winning.
Colts

Dig it

NFL Week 3 Picks

And the madness continues to sprawl. The margins are tight, the competition is fierce, the endings are dramatic. There’s so much parity at the pro level of the game, that fantasy leagues have parity. A couple of my fantasy leagues are 1-1 top to bottom through two.

I didn’t do too bad all things considered, going 11-5 on this blog and 12-4 on my Yahoo! Picks (only because I had hedged my own prediction since it was such a toss up haha). That brings the total count to 21-11 so far.

Let’s carry on.

Chiefs at Eagles

An exciting Thursday night game for sure. This will be the stiffest defense the Eagles will have faced thus far in the young season. They have a talented secondary and an active, aggressive front. The Eagles won’t have to worry about scoring a boatload of points however. A handful of successful drives would be all they need to beat the Chiefs and they have the personnel to pull it off.  The key will be to keep their electric ground game going against a tough KC run D. Without it, they won’t be able to get Vick and D Jax rollin’

I still expect the home team to will out a win here. They lost the Charger game late and it stung because they knew they had a big day offensively. The defense will be just a bit better but it’ll be enough.

Eagles

to be continued...

and before it is...

There's a quick bit I'd like to comment on before we carry through.

I was recently told that I suck at this and that I shouldn't be a gambling man lol well, for starters, I'm not one. I'm a creature of order and there are simply too many unmitigated external variables in gambling for me to operate comfortably so I don't bother. However, I'm a football man. I love the game, I study its many parts and, in our present day of widespread parity, it's all that more exciting to assess and discuss. Those who call me out on my picks are likely the same trolls who harassed Ray Rice about how his injury inconvenienced their precious fantasy teams. 

Anyway,

lol I did it again, this time inadvertently. I usually set my picks on Yahoo! immediately after the Monday night game, the previous week of football still fresh in my mind, before I even check out the games on Rewind, before I read any literature, before I watch any NFL TV. I go off my hunches and apparently, they're more right, more often than when I overthink things and do silly things like pick the Eagles over the Chiefs in Andy Reid's return to Philly. He frustrated Vick to no end with that awesome Chiefs defense and forced that super speed offense of Chip's into a one dimensional shadow of itself. As a result, the Chiefs are now looking like one of the strongest surprises of the new season. Their defense is sick, Smith brings calculated, accurate balance to the offense and that has in turn unleashed Jamaal Charles. Nice, Andy, very nice.

And according to Yahoo!, I already knew that lol

Let's just go with those early hunches, then, yeah?

Packers at Bengals

I was tempted to ride with the upset here. Then I realized that the Bengals looked good beating a decimated and struggling Steelers team. In other words, I’m still not totally sold on Cincy as a legit contender and the Pack is stupid good. That said, they’re in a great position to get over their kinks and make a real statement that could dictate how the rest of their season goes. And at home, with a strong pass rush that keeps Rodgers off balance and a bounce back by AJ Green, I think they do it.

Bengals

Rams at Cowboys

Normally, I'd respect the trend NFC East teams have been showing us of not getting it done outside of their division but I think this is the week its bucked. They have all manners of weapons on offense, are coming off a tough loss against the Chiefs that they could have won and have an underrated defense heading home. The Rams are no slouches and have the pass rush to harass Romo; I just don't see them getting this road win.

Cowboys

Cardinals at Saints

Rather quietly, the Saints are showing they can be a legitimate contender in the NFC. They’ve won a couple of close ones but they gritted both out and have now logged two division wins to kick the season off. If nothing else, it is a good start. As for the Cards, the upgrade at QB is nice but many of the problems that plagued them last season still do and aside from the Lions haven’t beaten anyone in the last 14 games. That will prove costly against New Orleans.

Saints

Browns at Vikings

The Browns have thrown in the towel. Although the Vikes have all sorts of glaring weaknesses, they really shouldn’t have any trouble with the Browns at home especially now that Cleveland has traded away T-Rich and are starting Hoyer under center. Their defense is still rigid but the rest of this team isn’t going to make any noise this week.

Vikings

Chargers at Titans

The Bolts have looked much better offensively under McCoy. Rivers almost looks like that Rivers of a few years ago. That’ll be put to the test against a surprising Titans team that, like the Chargers, gave up a late lead to the Texans. That’s the only difference between 2-0 for either team. On paper, I like San Diego here; they’ve got the vertical game working, Mathews looks decidedly better and the defense is stingy. However, their middling offensive line is going to get harassed by Tennessee’s pass rush and they aren't particularly good against the run. The Titans are slowly gaining national attention and I think they pull this upset off at home and fly under the radar no more.

Titans

Bucs at Pats

I thought about taking the Bucs on the road. The Bucs certainly have their issues but their defense is tough at both levels and the Patriots are wounded and wobbly. The Bucs will do what the Jets tried to do but do a better job of it; run the ball, play tough defense, take advantage of the New England secondary on deep balls and try to make less mistakes. Knowing that it’s the Bucs means I won’t hold my breath on all that, though.

Pats

Lions at Redskins

It’s eventually going to come together for RGIII and the Skins. I think it’s this week. The Lions can’t be trusted especially without their sexy new toy Bush out. Their defense is so porous, I think RGIII will find his rhythm much earlier than the 3^rd quarter when he’s been showing up the last couple times out. The Redskins defense has been minced and can very easily get the whooping again here but I think they hustle right out the gate and, for once, not play from behind feeding the rock to Morris and using RGIII’s legs to their advantage while ahead late.

Redskins

Giants at Panthers

I’m tempted to pick the Panthers as I’ve been high on them since before the season started. Sadly, they’ve looked middling on offense and their defense just can’t win games by itself. Ultimately, Cam is just going to have to go off because otherwise this team isn’t very exciting at all. On the other hand, you know the Giants are incensed. They’ve looked awful, their running game is in shambles, Eli is as frustrated as ever, Coughlin’s having heart palpitations and all in all, an 0-2 start in a difficult division is about as bad a start as it gets. They can’t afford to let that slip any further.

Giants

Texans at Ravens

This was going to be an uphill battle anyway for the Ravens who’ve looked disjointed and overmatched so far through two games (their win over the Browns means almost nothing in terms of their overall look, either). But with Ray Rice out and even though I know Bernard Pierce is a beast, I still think this is going to be rough going. The Texans still don’t look good yet so at least it’s possible, especially in Baltimore. Not this week.

Texans

Falcons at Dolphins

The Phins look pretty good at that shiny 2-0 spot with its new look squad keeping pace with New England. Lamar Miller finally flashed some of what has the city buzzing and Tannehill has looked, at worst, adept in the passing offense. Most importantly, their defense has been strong and this spells issues for a Falcons team that may have to start looking at some of these games as crucial ones considering how fast the Saints will have run off with the NFC South. They lose to a surprising Miami team.

Dolphins

Bills at Jets

A toss up. On one hand, I like what I’m seeing out of the Bills but their bad outweigh the good. On the other hand, I feel the same way about the Jets. 

Bills

Colts at Niners

Well, the trade that shook the football world will be on full display in a great matchup between the Colts and Niners. Word is T Rich is still getting a good chunk of snaps even though he’s new to the offense. Regardless, the Colts are really that much better with a legitimate running game to go with their passing attack. The Niners though aren’t havin’ any of that. They’re going to be looking to bounce back at home and are likely to do it.

Niners

Jaguars at Seahawks

The funny thing here is that Vegas is putting a really steep bet on this match up to the tune of 20 point underdogs lol truth is, while the Jags really are that bad and the Hawks really are that good and 20 points are entirely possible… it’s peculiar to me only because the Seattle offense has been quiet so far. They got some chunkage from Marshawn Lynch but almost nobody outside of him has produced at a high level just yet. Anyway, there is only one

Seahawks

Bears at Steelers

The Bears have surprised me a bit. I expected them to struggle even with the nice new offensive mindset. Instead, they’ve been very good at moving the ball. The Steelers can also move the rock well enough but they can’t punch any of it in. Running game is a mess, Big Ben is still on the run, and the defense just ain’t what it used to be. I think that even on the road against a quality team such as Pitts, the Bears continue their surge.

Bears

Raiders at Broncos

Well shoot. I can’t say I expect the Raiders to win. I do think they will play them tougher than most are predicting. The Raiders are still on wobbly ground because they haven’t been decisively good, not even in the Jaguars game that they dominated. They now contend with arguably the best QB of the era and a team that has averaged 45 points a game through two lol But no reason to overlook the fact the Raiders and Broncos always have good games, are rivals in a division, seeing each other 2 times a year.  In primetime? Forget about it. The Raiders are going to lose but it won’t be by nearly as much as everyone thinks. Pryor will use his legs to stay mobile, McFadden goes off and the defense will be in Manning’s face as much as they can be and throw off his timing.

Broncos

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NFL Week 2 Picks

Well, this year is off to a 9-7 start. I got smoked on some fairly poor calls (namely the misappropriation that the Ravens would be any good, that the Steelers weren’t over the hill and that RGIII was ready for primetime). Otherwise, I got really unfortunate with a lameduck meltdown by the Bengals, a sloppy Giants team and another where-did-the-Browns-go-against-a-team-they-ought-to-have-beaten. 

Let’s get to it.

Jets at Patriots

One thing is for sure about the Jets; they are far more resilient than most would have predicted as I didn't expect them to do much against Tampa and they somehow snuck out. The Patriots struggled with keeping the Bills at bay and walked away pretty dinged up, especially in their passing game with Amendola and Vereen out, Brady nipped a bit and Thompkins underwhelming in spite of a ton of targets. That said, they should still push the Jets around and harass Geno Smith the same way they harass every young QB that comes to Foxborough. The Jets may have edged by a potential last place team but they’re going to have much more trouble tonight.

I expect a strong effort by the Pats in spite of their injuries with Ridley, Edelman and Thompkins really coming through for them and to beat the spread.

Patriots

Redskins at Packers

The Pack could have very easily walked out of SF with a strong statement victory to kickoff the new season but instead were wasted by a questionable call. The good news is that they weren’t murdered on the ground by Kaepernick. The bad news is that they got shredded by him in the air. The task at hand now is to contain a QB with a similar skill set in RGIII who shook off a great deal of rust through the course of the Monday night game to show what he may be doin the rest of the way. The Redskins, though healthy on D, are not as stout as the Niners on that side of the ball and will get the brunt of the new balanced Packer offense.

The Packers are going home and will handily beat the Skins by more than the 7 ½ point spread with a balanced dose of Lacy and A-rod’s typical explosive passing.

Packers

Browns at Ravens

I’ve never been more disappointed by a defending champ of nearly any sport (at least that I can think of) as I was by the Ravens last Thursday. It would have been one thing to get beat by the Broncos but you can’t call that game anything but a whoopin’. The loss of leadership on the defensive side is very blatant. The loss of reliability due to Boldin’s departure and Pitta’s injury has left a gaping hole in the passing game and relegated Rice to MJD status. The Browns though are also in the doghouse as far as I’m concerned. Their secondary is an obvious weak point. They didn’t get much on the ground. Weeden had to throw 52 times.

Although the Ravens are favored by a TD at home, I’m completely unimpressed by their squad. Flacco doesn’t have enough weapons to effectively take advantage of Cleveland’s only real glaring weakness. I expect a bounce-back performance by Trent Richardson. Browns on the road.

Browns

Rams at Falcons

It was a spirited victory by the Rams for sure against a division rival in what was a sweet comeback. However, they’re running into a Falcons team that lost a tough opener on the road. The Rams showed they have the balance now to contend in the NFC West even if they are still one tier below the Seahawks and Niners. The Falcons, though, are in that tier and will be looking to win their home opener and get back to the level that got them to the NFC Championship game last season.

The Rams will play the Falcons tough but Matty Ice has too many weapons and their defense will have home field to harass Bradford and company. Atlanta beats the spread.

Falcons

Chargers at Eagles

The Chargers played much better than I expected. Their offense looked crisp in the first half, their run defense stingy as it has been for some time now and were it not for Houston’s elite defensive unit showing up in the 2^nd half in a big way, probably would have won. However, where they were able to succeed against the Texans in the first half of their game, they will not be so lucky against the Eagles who can run the ball far more effectively and with that snap-quick offense that everybody’s raving about can put defenses on their heels. Speaking of which, the pro game transition for Chip Kelly’s offense is some sweet stuff; the game only got interesting because the Eagles went conservative to preserve their lead and the Skins took advantage.

I expect there to be room for the Chargers to work offensively but I don’t anticipate that they’ll be able to contain Vick and the Eagles offense in Philly. I do think they’ll cover the 7 point spread, however.

Eagles

Vikings at Bears

Sadly for the Vikings, they ran into a buzzsaw when they tangled with the new look Lions offense and, as expected, didn’t have enough in the passing game to complement Adrian Peterson. They have an even tougher task this week as they travel to Chicago where the Bears look considerably better on defense than I had expected them to. That of course spells trouble for the Vikes who couldn’t get much going against Detroit’s porous defense. That Bears offense, by the way, looks nice as they were able to put up some points and ultimately beat a very good Bengals defense.

The Bears are only favored by 6 ½ points but I wouldn’t be surprised if they win by multiple scores at home with a nice showing from Marshall and Forte in the offense.

Da Bears

Panthers at Bills

Although I expected the Panthers to come out losers in their tilt with the Hawks, I was still very impressed that they weren’t dominated and by how tough they were against the run which is Seattle’s strength. The Panthers defense is one of the better units in the league and we know what Cam Newton can do. The Bills looked much better than I thought they would in giving their division rivals a heck of a fight but Carolina’s defense is a bit tougher than New England’s, especially against the run which means that CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson won’t find nearly as much room as they did last weekend.

Cam and Smith will hook up on some deep throws and D’angelo Williams should eat up some turf as the Panthers beat the spread and win by a field goal or so even if they’re on the road.

Panthers

Titans at Texans

The big shocker from week 1 was Tennessee harassing the Steelers after a sloppy start that looked like they were headed for trouble. Once they settled in, it was obvious that the Steelers couldn’t move the ball against their underrated defense and they scored just enough points to get by. I still don’t think it means much for them in the big picture as the Steelers might be much more troubled than previously expected. The Texans showed in the second half of their game with San Diego that their defense can shut anybody down with the return of Cushing to the mix. Whereas Pitts had very little to offer on the ground, the combination of Foster and Tate should make enough tread to get this game at home.

That was a nice start to the season for the Titans but they’re on their way to 1-1.  The Texans are favored by just shy of 10 points but I think a TD and a FG is a fair expectation for them to win by.

Texans

Dolphins at Colts

The Colts have to be concerned about their run defense (yet again). They let the Raiders run all over them even though they were decent against McFadden. Fortunately for them, Tannehill can’t really run all that well and unless Lamar Miller shows us something different, they might not get much from him either. Still, that is about the only way the Phins show up in Indy and win. The Colts have a really nasty resilience streak as Luck continues to prove he’s got it. They get a back to back home game to jump out to a quick 2-0 start in order to keep up with Houston.

I still don’t expect much on the ground from either team but the Colts should still be able to win this at home. Only way that doesn’t happen is if Miller goes off for Miami. Vegas thinks it’ll be really close at 2 ½ … I think that’s a fair call. Colts by a field goal, though.

Colts

Cowboys at Chiefs

Andy Reid has coached against the Cowboys for over a decade. Even with the changes in big D, he probably knows their team as well as he knows his own. The Chiefs finally have an offense to be reckoned with as they came away in week 1 with the largest margin of victory of any team. Whereas the Giants made what seemed like a few dozen mistakes against the Cowboys last week, Alex Smith is a far more cautious, accurate QB and backed by a tough defense in gritty Arrowhead, I don’t like Dallas’ chances. The Boys got lucky playing against a sloppy, disorganized Giants team but won’t be so lucky this week.

The Chiefs will meticulously pass against the Cowboy defense and their underrated defensive unit will frustrate Romo all day now that they are not expected to be on the field for 60% of every game. Expect them to beat the spread.

Chiefs

Saints at Buccaneers

The Saints are back. I’ve been telling everyone who’ll listen that Payton and Brees are two of the most fiercely competitive folks I’ve seen come through the league and are out there with a monumental chip on their shoulder due to last year’s shenanigans. Their wide open brand of offense is back and as long as they don’t get into shootouts with equally explosive offenses, they should win a lot of games this year. The Bucs look soft offensively mostly because their QB continues to underwhelm. They’ll get much better production on the ground from Doug Martin this week but I’m not sure it’ll be enough. Tampa Bay is probably finishing last in the division this season and bottom of three of the conference when all is said and done.

The Saints have too much firepower even against a division rival that plays them tough. It won’t be a blowout since they’re on the road but I expect them to still win by a score. A field goal is a decent call by Vegas but I’m going with a single TD.

Saints

Lions at Cardinals

This one’s probably gonna crack the 48 total points called for it in Vegas a both of these offenses will torch the roof off the place. Megatron and Fitzgerald are going to go off as Stafford and Palmer will be throwing for most of the afternoon. Arizona has a better defense so it’ll make it any interesting game especially with the Cards being home. Will it be enough to slow down Detroit’s new look offense with Reggie Bush clearly making himself comfortably at home? There’s an undeniable balance to this offense and that was on display against Minnesota this past Sunday.

Vegas has this as a push but I’m thinking Detroit’s onto something and will outscore the Cards on the road. It’s possible their sieve of a defense gives up just as many points as they put up but I’m counting on their superior ground game to eat up the clock and control the tempo.

Lions

Broncos at Giants

The Manning Bowl will likely be reduced to Peyton shredding the Giants and Eli getting frustrated throwing into tight coverage all afternoon. It’s possible that the Giants can fix their ground game in time to control the clock and do what Baltimore failed to do in keeping the ball out of Peyton’s hands but I wouldn’t bet on it. Peyton has maybe the best weapons of any QB in the NFL right now with both Demariyus and Julius Thomas, Welker and Eric Decker and while Eli has a nice receivers corps himself, his offensive line looks suspect. Let’s face it, Coughlin’s Giants are the most schizophrenic team of the past decade and we simply do not know what we’re going to get from them on any given Sunday. Whereas they were a complete mess in Dallas last Sunday, they are just as likely to come out and be on point at home.

Because of their unpredictability, I will gladly avoid them. Peyton and the Broncos have shown they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders with their undressing of the defending champs and I expect another stellar effort from them. They’ll beat the spread and win by two scores on the road.

Broncos

Jaguars at Raiders

In one of the few instances where the Raiders are favored, the unknown here is actually in favor of Jacksonville. With Gabbert out, Chad Henne takes over and it is possible this ex-starter is primed to take advantage of the opportunity and come out slinging it. MJD couldn’t find any daylight against KC but against a Raiders defense known for giving up the run, could be in for a big day. Still, generally speaking, Oakland’s defense has been a pleasant surprise, frustrating a very good Colts offense all day while harassing Luck throughout. Also, Jacksonville is going to have its hands full with Pryor who showed a great deal of promise with a fantastic display on the ground and a decent one through the air in spite of some glaring mistakes that he vowed to address. He is going through some obvious growing pains but there is optimism here.

I’m excited to say that the Raiders surprised me and that where they came up just short against a strong Indy team, they look set to win at home against a Jags team that got smoked last week by KC. The Raiders should get a better looking effort from Run DMC and beat the 5 ½ point spread en route to a .500 record.

RRRRAAAAAAIIDERSSS

49ers at Seahawks

Game of the week. In a match up of fierce rivals who may also be the top two teams in their conference, the least we can expect is a heavy dose of the run game, some nifty, explosive quarterbacking, stingy, hard hitting defense and a little chippyness. The game is already being preceded with all manners of trash talk ranging from fan jingles making fun of the Niners culminating with Niner players referring to their opponents as the “she-hawks” and calling out an already physically rough team to be even more so. The most exciting thing about the match up is that the two teams really do mirror each other stylistically and really do have the same strengths which makes for a great day of football and an exciting day of betting if that’s your cup. The edge has to go to the Hawks because of their traditional home field advantage with their noted “12^th man” but it isn’t much of an edge.

Cliches are considered taboo but I’ll indulge us all: This can go either way. No, really. I do expect Kaepernick to utilize his wheels much more this week than he did last week because Seattle’s secondary is probably the best in football and there’s no way he throws for another 400 yards and a pocketful of scores against them. In the end, though, Marshawn Lynch gets it going in week 2, the Seahawk defense gets grimy late and they eek another one out.

Seahawks

Steelers at Bengals

I’m sure that before the season, the scheduling powers thought this was a good idea. It might still be just because of the divisional climate but let’s face it, these are two teams headed in completely different directions. If there’s one thing we know about the Steelers now is that their line is decimated, the run game doesn’t exist and Big Ben is forcing throws to receivers that are not accustomed to being highlighted. Their defense is old and the mystique is gone. The Titans made them look like the Jags for one week. On the other hand, Cincy should have by all accounts won their first game of the year but had a shocking second half meltdown that saw them lose their lead and their first game of the year in spite of coming into the year as a trendy pick to make a run at the AFC Championship.

The Bengals are home and are going to look to bounce back and I fully expect them to do so. They’ll need to give Bernard more touches in the run game and everything else will fall into place. Their defense is too tough for Pittsburgh’s hollow offense and their offense is very nicely balanced this year. They’re favored by a TD but I’m expecting at least 10 points.

Bengals

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