Thursday, September 19, 2013

NFL Week 3 Picks

And the madness continues to sprawl. The margins are tight, the competition is fierce, the endings are dramatic. There’s so much parity at the pro level of the game, that fantasy leagues have parity. A couple of my fantasy leagues are 1-1 top to bottom through two.

I didn’t do too bad all things considered, going 11-5 on this blog and 12-4 on my Yahoo! Picks (only because I had hedged my own prediction since it was such a toss up haha). That brings the total count to 21-11 so far.

Let’s carry on.

Chiefs at Eagles
An exciting Thursday night game for sure. This will be the stiffest defense the Eagles will have faced thus far in the young season. They have a talented secondary and an active, aggressive front. The Eagles won’t have to worry about scoring a boatload of points however. A handful of successful drives would be all they need to beat the Chiefs and they have the personnel to pull it off.  The key will be to keep their electric ground game going against a tough KC run D. Without it, they won’t be able to get Vick and D Jax rollin’

I still expect the home team to will out a win here. They lost the Charger game late and it stung because they knew they had a big day offensively. The defense will be just a bit better but it’ll be enough.
Eagles

to be continued...

and before it is...

There's a quick bit I'd like to comment on before we carry through.

I was recently told that I suck at this and that I shouldn't be a gambling man lol well, for starters, I'm not one. I'm a creature of order and there are simply too many unmitigated external variables in gambling for me to operate comfortably so I don't bother. However, I'm a football man. I love the game, I study its many parts and, in our present day of widespread parity, it's all that more exciting to assess and discuss. Those who call me out on my picks are likely the same trolls who harassed Ray Rice about how his injury inconvenienced their precious fantasy teams. 

Anyway,



lol I did it again, this time inadvertently. I usually set my picks on Yahoo! immediately after the Monday night game, the previous week of football still fresh in my mind, before I even check out the games on Rewind, before I read any literature, before I watch any NFL TV. I go off my hunches and apparently, they're more right, more often than when I overthink things and do silly things like pick the Eagles over the Chiefs in Andy Reid's return to Philly. He frustrated Vick to no end with that awesome Chiefs defense and forced that super speed offense of Chip's into a one dimensional shadow of itself. As a result, the Chiefs are now looking like one of the strongest surprises of the new season. Their defense is sick, Smith brings calculated, accurate balance to the offense and that has in turn unleashed Jamaal Charles. Nice, Andy, very nice.

And according to Yahoo!, I already knew that lol

Let's just go with those early hunches, then, yeah?

Packers at Bengals
I was tempted to ride with the upset here. Then I realized that the Bengals looked good beating a decimated and struggling Steelers team. In other words, I’m still not totally sold on Cincy as a legit contender and the Pack is stupid good. That said, they’re in a great position to get over their kinks and make a real statement that could dictate how the rest of their season goes. And at home, with a strong pass rush that keeps Rodgers off balance and a bounce back by AJ Green, I think they do it.
Bengals

Rams at Cowboys
Normally, I'd respect the trend NFC East teams have been showing us of not getting it done outside of their division but I think this is the week its bucked. They have all manners of weapons on offense, are coming off a tough loss against the Chiefs that they could have won and have an underrated defense heading home. The Rams are no slouches and have the pass rush to harass Romo; I just don't see them getting this road win.
Cowboys

Cardinals at Saints
Rather quietly, the Saints are showing they can be a legitimate contender in the NFC. They’ve won a couple of close ones but they gritted both out and have now logged two division wins to kick the season off. If nothing else, it is a good start. As for the Cards, the upgrade at QB is nice but many of the problems that plagued them last season still do and aside from the Lions haven’t beaten anyone in the last 14 games. That will prove costly against New Orleans.
Saints

Browns at Vikings
The Browns have thrown in the towel. Although the Vikes have all sorts of glaring weaknesses, they really shouldn’t have any trouble with the Browns at home especially now that Cleveland has traded away T-Rich and are starting Hoyer under center. Their defense is still rigid but the rest of this team isn’t going to make any noise this week.
Vikings

Chargers at Titans
The Bolts have looked much better offensively under McCoy. Rivers almost looks like that Rivers of a few years ago. That’ll be put to the test against a surprising Titans team that, like the Chargers, gave up a late lead to the Texans. That’s the only difference between 2-0 for either team. On paper, I like San Diego here; they’ve got the vertical game working, Mathews looks decidedly better and the defense is stingy. However, their middling offensive line is going to get harassed by Tennessee’s pass rush and they aren't particularly good against the run. The Titans are slowly gaining national attention and I think they pull this upset off at home and fly under the radar no more.
Titans

Bucs at Pats
I thought about taking the Bucs on the road. The Bucs certainly have their issues but their defense is tough at both levels and the Patriots are wounded and wobbly. The Bucs will do what the Jets tried to do but do a better job of it; run the ball, play tough defense, take advantage of the New England secondary on deep balls and try to make less mistakes. Knowing that it’s the Bucs means I won’t hold my breath on all that, though.
Pats

Lions at Redskins
It’s eventually going to come together for RGIII and the Skins. I think it’s this week. The Lions can’t be trusted especially without their sexy new toy Bush out. Their defense is so porous, I think RGIII will find his rhythm much earlier than the 3rd quarter when he’s been showing up the last couple times out. The Redskins defense has been minced and can very easily get the whooping again here but I think they hustle right out the gate and, for once, not play from behind feeding the rock to Morris and using RGIII’s legs to their advantage while ahead late.
Redskins

Giants at Panthers
I’m tempted to pick the Panthers as I’ve been high on them since before the season started. Sadly, they’ve looked middling on offense and their defense just can’t win games by itself. Ultimately, Cam is just going to have to go off because otherwise this team isn’t very exciting at all. On the other hand, you know the Giants are incensed. They’ve looked awful, their running game is in shambles, Eli is as frustrated as ever, Coughlin’s having heart palpitations and all in all, an 0-2 start in a difficult division is about as bad a start as it gets. They can’t afford to let that slip any further.
Giants

Texans at Ravens
This was going to be an uphill battle anyway for the Ravens who’ve looked disjointed and overmatched so far through two games (their win over the Browns means almost nothing in terms of their overall look, either). But with Ray Rice out and even though I know Bernard Pierce is a beast, I still think this is going to be rough going. The Texans still don’t look good yet so at least it’s possible, especially in Baltimore. Not this week.
Texans

Falcons at Dolphins
The Phins look pretty good at that shiny 2-0 spot with its new look squad keeping pace with New England. Lamar Miller finally flashed some of what has the city buzzing and Tannehill has looked, at worst, adept in the passing offense. Most importantly, their defense has been strong and this spells issues for a Falcons team that may have to start looking at some of these games as crucial ones considering how fast the Saints will have run off with the NFC South. They lose to a surprising Miami team.
Dolphins

Bills at Jets
A toss up. On one hand, I like what I’m seeing out of the Bills but their bad outweigh the good. On the other hand, I feel the same way about the Jets. 
Bills

Colts at Niners
Well, the trade that shook the football world will be on full display in a great matchup between the Colts and Niners. Word is T Rich is still getting a good chunk of snaps even though he’s new to the offense. Regardless, the Colts are really that much better with a legitimate running game to go with their passing attack. The Niners though aren’t havin’ any of that. They’re going to be looking to bounce back at home and are likely to do it.
Niners

Jaguars at Seahawks
The funny thing here is that Vegas is putting a really steep bet on this match up to the tune of 20 point underdogs lol truth is, while the Jags really are that bad and the Hawks really are that good and 20 points are entirely possible… it’s peculiar to me only because the Seattle offense has been quiet so far. They got some chunkage from Marshawn Lynch but almost nobody outside of him has produced at a high level just yet. Anyway, there is only one
Seahawks

Bears at Steelers
The Bears have surprised me a bit. I expected them to struggle even with the nice new offensive mindset. Instead, they’ve been very good at moving the ball. The Steelers can also move the rock well enough but they can’t punch any of it in. Running game is a mess, Big Ben is still on the run, and the defense just ain’t what it used to be. I think that even on the road against a quality team such as Pitts, the Bears continue their surge.
Bears

Raiders at Broncos
Well shoot. I can’t say I expect the Raiders to win. I do think they will play them tougher than most are predicting. The Raiders are still on wobbly ground because they haven’t been decisively good, not even in the Jaguars game that they dominated. They now contend with arguably the best QB of the era and a team that has averaged 45 points a game through two lol But no reason to overlook the fact the Raiders and Broncos always have good games, are rivals in a division, seeing each other 2 times a year.  In primetime? Forget about it. The Raiders are going to lose but it won’t be by nearly as much as everyone thinks. Pryor will use his legs to stay mobile, McFadden goes off and the defense will be in Manning’s face as much as they can be and throw off his timing.

Broncos

DIG IT

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