Well, this year is off to a 9-7 start. I got smoked on
some fairly poor calls (namely the misappropriation that the Ravens would be
any good, that the Steelers weren’t over the hill and that RGIII was ready for
primetime). Otherwise, I got really unfortunate with a lameduck meltdown by the
Bengals, a sloppy Giants team and another where-did-the-Browns-go-against-a-team-they-ought-to-have-beaten.
Let’s get to it.
Jets at Patriots
One thing is for sure about the Jets; they are far more
resilient than most would have predicted as I didn't expect them to do much against Tampa and they somehow snuck out. The Patriots struggled with keeping
the Bills at bay and walked away pretty dinged up, especially in their passing
game with Amendola and Vereen out, Brady nipped a bit and Thompkins
underwhelming in spite of a ton of targets. That said, they should still push the
Jets around and harass Geno Smith the same way they harass every young QB that
comes to Foxborough. The Jets may have edged by a potential last place team but
they’re going to have much more trouble tonight.
I expect a strong effort by the Pats in spite of their
injuries with Ridley, Edelman and Thompkins really coming through for them and
to beat the spread.
Patriots
Redskins at
Packers
The Pack could have very easily walked out of SF with a
strong statement victory to kickoff the new season but instead were wasted by a
questionable call. The good news is that they weren’t murdered on the ground by
Kaepernick. The bad news is that they got shredded by him in the air. The task
at hand now is to contain a QB with a similar skill set in RGIII who shook off
a great deal of rust through the course of the Monday night game to show what
he may be doin the rest of the way. The Redskins, though healthy on D, are not
as stout as the Niners on that side of the ball and will get the brunt of the
new balanced Packer offense.
The Packers are going home and will handily beat the
Skins by more than the 7 ½ point spread with a balanced dose of Lacy and A-rod’s
typical explosive passing.
Packers
Browns at Ravens
I’ve never been more disappointed by a defending champ of
nearly any sport (at least that I can think of) as I was by the Ravens last
Thursday. It would have been one thing to get beat by the Broncos but you can’t
call that game anything but a whoopin’. The loss of leadership on the defensive
side is very blatant. The loss of reliability due to Boldin’s departure and
Pitta’s injury has left a gaping hole in the passing game and relegated Rice to
MJD status. The Browns though are also in the doghouse as far as I’m concerned.
Their secondary is an obvious weak point. They didn’t get much on the ground. Weeden
had to throw 52 times.
Although the Ravens are favored by a TD at home, I’m
completely unimpressed by their squad. Flacco doesn’t have enough weapons to
effectively take advantage of Cleveland’s only real glaring weakness. I expect a
bounce-back performance by Trent Richardson. Browns on the road.
Browns
Rams at Falcons
It was a spirited victory by the Rams for sure against a
division rival in what was a sweet comeback. However, they’re running into a
Falcons team that lost a tough opener on the road. The Rams showed they have
the balance now to contend in the NFC West even if they are still one tier
below the Seahawks and Niners. The Falcons, though, are in that tier and will
be looking to win their home opener and get back to the level that got them to
the NFC Championship game last season.
The Rams will play the Falcons tough but Matty Ice has
too many weapons and their defense will have home field to harass Bradford and
company. Atlanta beats the spread.
Falcons
Chargers at Eagles
The Chargers played much better than I expected. Their
offense looked crisp in the first half, their run defense stingy as it has been
for some time now and were it not for Houston’s elite defensive unit showing up
in the 2nd half in a big way, probably would have won. However,
where they were able to succeed against the Texans in the first half of their
game, they will not be so lucky against the Eagles who can run the ball far
more effectively and with that snap-quick offense that everybody’s raving about
can put defenses on their heels. Speaking of which, the pro game transition for
Chip Kelly’s offense is some sweet stuff; the game only got interesting because
the Eagles went conservative to preserve their lead and the Skins took
advantage.
I expect there to be room for the Chargers to work
offensively but I don’t anticipate that they’ll be able to contain Vick and the
Eagles offense in Philly. I do think they’ll cover the 7 point spread, however.
Eagles
Vikings at Bears
Sadly for the Vikings, they ran into a buzzsaw when they
tangled with the new look Lions offense and, as expected, didn’t have enough in
the passing game to complement Adrian Peterson. They have an even tougher task
this week as they travel to Chicago where the Bears look considerably better on
defense than I had expected them to. That of course spells trouble for the
Vikes who couldn’t get much going against Detroit’s porous defense. That Bears
offense, by the way, looks nice as they were able to put up some points and
ultimately beat a very good Bengals defense.
The Bears are only favored by 6 ½ points but I wouldn’t
be surprised if they win by multiple scores at home with a nice showing from
Marshall and Forte in the offense.
Da Bears
Panthers at Bills
Although I expected the Panthers to come out losers in
their tilt with the Hawks, I was still very impressed that they weren’t
dominated and by how tough they were against the run which is Seattle’s
strength. The Panthers defense is one of the better units in the league and we
know what Cam Newton can do. The Bills looked much better than I thought they
would in giving their division rivals a heck of a fight but Carolina’s defense
is a bit tougher than New England’s, especially against the run which means
that CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson won’t find nearly as much room as they did
last weekend.
Cam and Smith will hook up on some deep throws and D’angelo
Williams should eat up some turf as the Panthers beat the spread and win by a
field goal or so even if they’re on the road.
Panthers
Titans at Texans
The big shocker from week 1 was Tennessee harassing the
Steelers after a sloppy start that looked like they were headed for trouble.
Once they settled in, it was obvious that the Steelers couldn’t move the ball
against their underrated defense and they scored just enough points to get by.
I still don’t think it means much for them in the big picture as the Steelers
might be much more troubled than previously expected. The Texans showed in the second
half of their game with San Diego that their defense can shut anybody down with
the return of Cushing to the mix. Whereas Pitts had very little to offer on the
ground, the combination of Foster and Tate should make enough tread to get this
game at home.
That was a nice start to the season for the Titans but
they’re on their way to 1-1. The Texans
are favored by just shy of 10 points but I think a TD and a FG is a fair
expectation for them to win by.
Texans
Dolphins at Colts
The Colts have to be concerned about their run defense
(yet again). They let the Raiders run all over them even though they were
decent against McFadden. Fortunately for them, Tannehill can’t really run all
that well and unless Lamar Miller shows us something different, they might not
get much from him either. Still, that is about the only way the Phins show up
in Indy and win. The Colts have a really nasty resilience streak as Luck
continues to prove he’s got it. They get a back to back home game to jump out
to a quick 2-0 start in order to keep up with Houston.
I still don’t expect much on the ground from either team
but the Colts should still be able to win this at home. Only way that doesn’t
happen is if Miller goes off for Miami. Vegas thinks it’ll be really close at 2
½ … I think that’s a fair call. Colts by a field goal, though.
Colts
Cowboys at Chiefs
Andy Reid has coached against the Cowboys for over a
decade. Even with the changes in big D, he probably knows their team as well as
he knows his own. The Chiefs finally have an offense to be reckoned with as
they came away in week 1 with the largest margin of victory of any team.
Whereas the Giants made what seemed like a few dozen mistakes against the Cowboys
last week, Alex Smith is a far more cautious, accurate QB and backed by a tough
defense in gritty Arrowhead, I don’t like Dallas’ chances. The Boys got lucky
playing against a sloppy, disorganized Giants team but won’t be so lucky this
week.
The Chiefs will meticulously pass against the Cowboy
defense and their underrated defensive unit will frustrate Romo all day now
that they are not expected to be on the field for 60% of every game. Expect
them to beat the spread.
Chiefs
Saints at Buccaneers
The Saints are back. I’ve been telling everyone who’ll
listen that Payton and Brees are two of the most fiercely competitive folks I’ve
seen come through the league and are out there with a monumental chip on their
shoulder due to last year’s shenanigans. Their wide open brand of offense is
back and as long as they don’t get into shootouts with equally explosive
offenses, they should win a lot of games this year. The Bucs look soft
offensively mostly because their QB continues to underwhelm. They’ll get much
better production on the ground from Doug Martin this week but I’m not sure it’ll
be enough. Tampa Bay is probably finishing last in the division this season and
bottom of three of the conference when all is said and done.
The Saints have too much firepower even against a
division rival that plays them tough. It won’t be a blowout since they’re on
the road but I expect them to still win by a score. A field goal is a decent
call by Vegas but I’m going with a single TD.
Saints
Lions at Cardinals
This one’s probably gonna crack the 48 total points
called for it in Vegas a both of these offenses will torch the roof off the
place. Megatron and Fitzgerald are going to go off as Stafford and Palmer will
be throwing for most of the afternoon. Arizona has a better defense so it’ll
make it any interesting game especially with the Cards being home. Will it be
enough to slow down Detroit’s new look offense with Reggie Bush clearly making
himself comfortably at home? There’s an undeniable balance to this offense and
that was on display against Minnesota this past Sunday.
Vegas has this as a push but I’m thinking Detroit’s onto
something and will outscore the Cards on the road. It’s possible their sieve of
a defense gives up just as many points as they put up but I’m counting on their
superior ground game to eat up the clock and control the tempo.
Lions
Broncos at Giants
The Manning Bowl will likely be reduced to Peyton
shredding the Giants and Eli getting frustrated throwing into tight coverage
all afternoon. It’s possible that the Giants can fix their ground game in time to
control the clock and do what Baltimore failed to do in keeping the ball out of
Peyton’s hands but I wouldn’t bet on it. Peyton has maybe the best weapons of
any QB in the NFL right now with both Demariyus and Julius Thomas, Welker and
Eric Decker and while Eli has a nice receivers corps himself, his offensive
line looks suspect. Let’s face it, Coughlin’s Giants are the most schizophrenic
team of the past decade and we simply do not know what we’re going to get from
them on any given Sunday. Whereas they were a complete mess in Dallas last
Sunday, they are just as likely to come out and be on point at home.
Because of their unpredictability, I will gladly avoid
them. Peyton and the Broncos have shown they are legitimate Super Bowl
contenders with their undressing of the defending champs and I expect another
stellar effort from them. They’ll beat the spread and win by two scores on the
road.
Broncos
Jaguars at Raiders
In one of the few instances where the Raiders are
favored, the unknown here is actually in favor of Jacksonville. With Gabbert
out, Chad Henne takes over and it is possible this ex-starter is primed to take
advantage of the opportunity and come out slinging it. MJD couldn’t find any
daylight against KC but against a Raiders defense known for giving up the run,
could be in for a big day. Still, generally speaking, Oakland’s defense has
been a pleasant surprise, frustrating a very good Colts offense all day while
harassing Luck throughout. Also, Jacksonville is going to have its hands full
with Pryor who showed a great deal of promise with a fantastic display on the
ground and a decent one through the air in spite of some glaring mistakes that
he vowed to address. He is going through some obvious growing pains but there
is optimism here.
I’m excited to say that the Raiders surprised me and that
where they came up just short against a strong Indy team, they look set to win
at home against a Jags team that got smoked last week by KC. The Raiders should
get a better looking effort from Run DMC and beat the 5 ½ point spread en route
to a .500 record.
RRRRAAAAAAIIDERSSS
49ers at Seahawks
Game of the week. In a match up of fierce rivals who may
also be the top two teams in their conference, the least we can expect is a
heavy dose of the run game, some nifty, explosive quarterbacking, stingy, hard
hitting defense and a little chippyness. The game is already being preceded
with all manners of trash talk ranging from fan jingles making fun of the
Niners culminating with Niner players referring to their opponents as the “she-hawks”
and calling out an already physically rough team to be even more so. The most
exciting thing about the match up is that the two teams really do mirror each
other stylistically and really do have the same strengths which makes for a
great day of football and an exciting day of betting if that’s your cup. The
edge has to go to the Hawks because of their traditional home field advantage
with their noted “12th man” but it isn’t much of an edge.
Cliches are considered taboo but I’ll indulge us all:
This can go either way. No, really. I do expect Kaepernick to utilize his
wheels much more this week than he did last week because Seattle’s secondary is
probably the best in football and there’s no way he throws for another 400
yards and a pocketful of scores against them. In the end, though, Marshawn
Lynch gets it going in week 2, the Seahawk defense gets grimy late and they eek
another one out.
Seahawks
Steelers at
Bengals
I’m sure that before the season, the scheduling powers
thought this was a good idea. It might still be just because of the divisional
climate but let’s face it, these are two teams headed in completely different directions.
If there’s one thing we know about the Steelers now is that their line is
decimated, the run game doesn’t exist and Big Ben is forcing throws to
receivers that are not accustomed to being highlighted. Their defense is old
and the mystique is gone. The Titans made them look like the Jags for one week.
On the other hand, Cincy should have by all accounts won their first game of
the year but had a shocking second half meltdown that saw them lose their lead
and their first game of the year in spite of coming into the year as a trendy
pick to make a run at the AFC Championship.
The Bengals are home and are going to look to bounce back
and I fully expect them to do so. They’ll need to give Bernard more touches in
the run game and everything else will fall into place. Their defense is too
tough for Pittsburgh’s hollow offense and their offense is very nicely balanced
this year. They’re favored by a TD but I’m expecting at least 10 points.
Bengals
Dig it
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