Tuesday, October 9, 2012

NFL Week 6 Picks!


So…  when I suggested that I thought the replacement refs were inadvertently doing a number on picks across the prognostosphere, I was met with incredulity. “Maybe you just suck, weed” was what I was told.

But the numbers don’t lie. I went 25-23 before the lockout ended (for all intents and purpose, a .500 clip that means a penny could have done a better job)… and after going 11-3 last week, 21-8 since.

No, it’s not a coincidence.


Steelers at Titans
The Titans might be the worst team in football except the Jags still play in Jacksonville (for now). Their defense is horrendous and CJ2K is MIA meaning it doesn’t matter who suits up under center for the Titans,  a one dimensional passing attack with that stable of receivers is going to get smoked by a defense like Pittsburgh’s even if Troy still can’t go. With Mendenhall back in the mix and looking good, the Steelers have regained the balance in their offense that had been missing.
Steelers

Rams at Dolphins
I seriously did try to ignore the Dolphins after the number they dropped on the Raiders in Week 2 attributing their explosive win to taking advantage of a shitty Raider team. Except that since then, they lost a couple games by a single field goal each time (while Carpenter was missing ‘em left and right, mind you) and won another on the road in Cincinnati. Tannehill looks better than I expected, Bush really is running the ball like more than a gimmicky change of pace and Hartline might just be a serviceable #1 (did I just say that?)… I like the Rams and their tough defense and how they grittily edged out the Cards but on the road against this Dolphins team, they won’t get too far with that offensive production.
Dolphins

Cowboys at Ravens
I guess you never know and any given Sunday and blah blah but there’s nothing here to indicate that the Cowboys are going to straighten out their issues in the run blocking and pass protection to help Romo not make half a dozen mistakes per game in time or effectively enough to survive the Baltimore defense. The Ravens are a mystery themselves; after showing signs of their offense waking up this season after years of being Ray’s sidekick, they win a weird one against KC 6-3. The Cowboys have a decent D but I’m not sure it’ll be enough to stop the Ravens from bouncing back at home and putting up some big points.
Ravens

Lions at Eagles
The Eagles have been in a lot of very close games this year and their loss to the Steelers by less than a field goal has to sting given how absolutely awful Vick was, again, at protecting the football. His job security is certainly in question but not in the immediate future and I expect the Eagles to atone for their abysmal loss last week by handling the Lions at home this week. The Lions have regressed big time this year. Given the expectations, I think moreso than any other team in the league. Their total lack of everything outside of Stafford-to-Megatron is nauseating to watch. Even though they are atrocious against the spread this year (and even last year), I’m still going with the
Eagles

Bengals at Browns
It’s hard to figure out these Bengals, that much is certain. When they’re good, they’re good and when they’re bad, they’re bad. The Browns played them very tough in Cincinnati as Weeden had the best game of his young career in almost upsetting the Bengals on the road. Didn’t work out that way but after how stifled the Cincy offense was against Miami, I’m a little hesitant to look for a repeat. The Browns looked solid for stretches of their tilt with the defending champion Giants before Eli went bezerk and threw three TD passes to Victor Cruz in, what, five minutes or something? I am starting to like this young offense the Brownies have going with Weeden, Richardson and their young receiving corps. Cleveland gets its first win of the season.
Browns

Colts at Jets
The possible let down for the Colts after such an emotional win over the Pack with what’s going on with Coach Pagano is very real… especially considering they have a rookie QB. That said, Andrew Luck may not be an ordinary rookie and if he continues to distribute the ball the way he has (and if Reggie Wayne continues to have a career year), there’s nothing that the Jets can do to stop it with their overrated defense and punchless offense. I don’t hide my disdain for the Jets and the circus going on over there in New York.
Colts

Chiefs at Bucs
The Chiefs looked a little more resilient this past weekend against the Ravens in losing only by a field goal instead of the demolition many had anticipated. Cassel is knocked out and Quinn is going under center this week on the road. Even with Jamaal Charles studding it out for them, the Chiefs are going to be pressed to beat a solid Bucs team coming off a bye at home.
Bucs

Raiders at Falcons
Why even bother. Funny trend: they win when I pick against them. So
Falcons

Patriots at Seahawks
This could be a nasty situation for the Pats having to travel West to tangle with a tough defense in one of the toughest places to play in the league. The line is aptly sitting (currently) at 3 ½ and if the Pats are going to win they’re not going to do it by too many scores. I still think they’re too strong for the Seahawks and their hit or miss offense (Marshawn Lynch excluded).
Pats

Bills at Cardinals
The Bills probably have the worst defense in the league and that’s after they spent a boatload of cash on defensive upgrades. They’ve been shredded by everybody with two working arms while their own QB has routinely thrown it to the other team (more often than he’s thrown to his own).  That isn’t going to change on the road against a Cardinals team that just lost their first game of the season and have had a week and a half to prepare for the Bills. As long as they keep Kolb upright, this could be a blowout. Even if not, they’re probably still going to win. The real question now for the Cards is how effectively they will run the football with so many injuries in their backfield. Still, this doesn’t look good for Buffalo.
Cards

Giants at Niners
One of the games of the week if not it. These two franchises historically don’t like each other much as they almost always run into each other when games matter most and after the Giants rolled into San Fran and basically stole the NFC Championship from under their noses, you can expect the Niners to come out with a bit more oomph than they normally would. The line is sliding towards the Giants right now and they are pretty awesome on the road against the spread but the Niners are undefeated at home against it since Harbaugh took over. I’ve learned never to count Eli out or readily bet against him but the Niners have also just wiped the turf with the last two teams they’ve met to the combine tune of 79-3… sooo…
Niners

Vikings at Redskins
The Redskins are in trouble and it’s most unfortunate. What looked like such a promising season after drafting RG3 and looking solid in the preseason (was there really talk about them challenging for the NFC East???), they have been ravaged by injuries to key players the latest of which being a concussion to their prize signal caller. Even if he is able to play, he’ll be doing it with a little cobweb action going on regardless. The Vikings, on the other hand, have been one of the many surprises in the NFC. They are very tough on defense, play smart conservative football on offense and Ponder is getting a very favorable matchup against Washington’s weaksauce secondary. I can’t believe that the Vikes might be on the verge of going 5-1
Vikings

Packers at Texans
The nightmare continues for the Pack. What was supposed to be a bounce back season for the Packers has turned into an utter mess. They’re under .500 in the early going, chasing two 4-1 teams, were robbed on national television of what would be a 3-2 record and just lost their offseason prize RB, Cedric Benson for likely the year (just ask the Raiders how that 6-8 week Lisfranc prognosis worked out for them).  They can certainly bounce back and all that jazz but trying to get that process started against the Texans who have not shown any weaknesses thus far is no easy task. The Texans can run the ball against anyone and against a soft run D at home, that shouldn’t be an issue. JJ Watt is going to be chasing Rodgers all day behind that swiss line of his. This doesn’t look good for the Pack.
Texans

Broncos at Chargers
With the way the Chiefs and Raiders are stinking up the joint right now, this is a fight for the top of the division. Right now, the Chargers are in the driver’s seat even in spite of their second loss of the season. But not by much. Peyton Manning is really special in primetime football and with a chance to put his team into first (it’ll be a tie in terms of straight up record) in the opponent’s house, I wouldn’t dare bet against him. I hate both of these franchises but this is our division and I’ll be watching with a very close eye.
Broncos

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