I had made the bold proclamation that my early season
struggles were due, in large part, to the replacement referees and not my murky
crystal ball. After going 6-8 last week, I am starting to wonder...
One thing is certain regardless of whether or not the
officiating was on point or not; there is a distinct sense of parity this
season that has been missing from most pro sports leagues. Despite my bad
weeks, I’m going at the same clip as most other Yahoo! Users (which is 52-39). For
the first time in years, I don’t have a clue who’ll be in the Super bowl.
And I’m not worried about it right now. Right now, I’m
focused on navigating this brave new NFL.
Read on.
Seahawks at Niners
Both of these teams were involved in late game stunners
albeit in significantly different ways. The Seattle defense (and their 12th
man) gave Brady and the Patriots fits all day, Russell Wilson had a career
defining moment and the Seahawks validated their fast start. The 49ers were
supposed to be the best team in the NFL this year, the team that could not be
beat and instead they were touched up at home by the defending champs in a game
they were expected to exact their vengeance. Now these two divisional rivals
tangle in primetime and we’re in for a low scoring, defensive clinic treat. Is
it Halloween yet? Scary linebackers are going to be running amuck all night long.
The Seahawks are built much like the Niners with Marshawn Lynch the engine of
an offense that is provided opportunities by their killer defense. But can they
beat the incumbent on the road? Coming off a beatdown, I expect the Niners to
bounce back with Harbaugh’s fire very visible on both sides of the ball and win
at home.
Niners
Ravens at Texans
Like the Seahawks/Niners tilt, this matchup’s going to be
reduced to a defensive struggle. How much will the loss of Lardarius Webb and
Ray Lewis affect the defense? Nevermind what Ray’s non-football influence
offers the Ravens, his on-field presence makes all the difference in the run
game. A run game, mind you, that Arian Foster and the Texans can’t wait to get
back on track in a big way. Coming off a disastrous showing at home in
primetime, the Texans will be looking to establish the run and take advantage
of Baltimore’s dinged up secondary. It’ll be interesting to see how Baltimore
exploits Brian Cushing’s absence and whether or not that really was the
difference for the Texans against Green Bay last week. Baltimore is notorious for being tough to beat
in the face of adversity and the odds and might be in the perfect position to
win on the road with a Texans team that might be feeling human for the first
time this year. Not in my estimation, though.
Texans
Packers at Rams
This has trap game tattooed across its face. The Rams
have a tough defense, have been very well coached and are getting just enough
production offensively to overachieve and get to .500 in a very tough division.
Will it be adequate at home against a Packer team coming off an explosive
offensive performance? My guess is not. While Packer fans I know are all
concerned about it, I’m not. The Pack should continue the momentum and win on
the road.
Packers
Titans at Bills
I hate to admit it but I really did flip a coin on this
one. On one hand, the Titans look a bit better managed with Hasselbeck under
center and CJ2k is due for another big game which is not a stretch against this
awful Bills defense. On the other hand, the Bills have explosive potential on
offense especially with both Spiller and
Jackson available and involved. Fitzpatrick is much better under center when
they are. Awful when they’re not. This will be a barn burner much like the
Titans/Lions tilt was. My coin flip went with the home team and I’m sticking to
that story.
Bills
Browns at Colts
I’m happy for the Browns getting their first win of the
season (and having called it! Hehe) but there’ll be a letdown this week when
they travel to Indy. The two areas where the Browns can give the Colts trouble
especially on the road is in their run game (Indy is awful against the run,
just look at what Shonn Greene did to them last week) and in their secondary
where they can limit Andrew Luck’s effectiveness in the air. It just won’t be
that much of a limitation. I think in the end, Luck will find a way to take this
winnable game at home. The Browns won one at home; I just don’t trust them on
the road just yet.
Colts
Saints at
Buccaneers
The Saints finally got their first notch in the win
column but it does not get them out of the woods. They still only outscored a
team in the Chargers that we now know is not as good as advertised (at least
defensively) and otherwise have been unable to stop ANYONE to help Brees out.
The Bucs have been surprisingly solid this year after stinking up the joint
last season, having a nice running game from rookie Doug Martin and a much
improved passing game from Josh Freeman and his new weapons. Their defense
plays tougher at home than on the road... and they always play the Saints
tough. I know a lot of folks will disagree with me but I think the Bucs are
going to bring the Saints back down to Earth. Brees was having a special night
when they got their first win of the season; coach Payton was in the house, the
cameras were all on Brees as he broke the record and the Chargers expectedly
choked away the game. The Saints’ problems (many of which surround their
defense and lack of middle linebacker presence and passrush) will not have gone
away in a week. The Bucs will not provide the Saints with those comforting
circumstances.
Bucs
Cowboys at
Panthers
Upset alert. Most folks are taking the Cowboys in this
one and with good reason. They barely lost to the Ravens (they shot themselves
in the foot is more like it) and have had the potential of being a contender
this season (like so many before it) and can turn it around at any moment.
However, here are a couple things to consider: with Murray out, an already
ineffective running game (due to an offensive offensive line) will be even more
so with the grossly underachieving Felix Jones taking over. Romo is volatile
when forced to throw and the Panthers, for all their defensive issues, can pick
people off in bunches. Consider also that Cam Newton had an absolutely awful
outing his last time out when Seattle’s elite defensive front made life
miserable for a team that is predicated on running the ball from both the half
back and quarterback position. After an extra week to prepare for the Cowboys
and with a concerted effort to right the ship on what has so far been a disastrous
sophomore effort, I expect Cam to have a monster day. At home.
Panthers
Cardinals at
Vikings
A few weeks ago, we were talking about the surprising
Arizona Cardinals. They were winning with stifling, aggressive front seven
defense and just enough offense. Then that offense became less than enough and
just got even more so when Kevin Kolb was added to the laundry list of injured
players that has already claimed Arizona’s entire running game, it seems. This
is no good against the Vikes who, despite coming down to earth last week in
D.C., will bounce back at home to stifle an already stifled offense. Ponder was
uncharacteristically mistake prone en route to an ineffective day for the
offense. Expect a bounce back effort by the whole squad and multiple sacks for
Jared Allen on Skelton behind that nonexistent Arizona offensive line.
Vikings
Redskins at Giants
What to make of the Giants? They have played exactly as
you would expect of them. They’ve lost both divisional games this year. Beaten
everyone else. Struggled with Cleveland and Tampa at home... but smashed the
Niners in San Francisco. Maybe trends mean nothing to Eli Manning (and as a
result to us armchair football analysts) but everything points to a loss at
home for the G men. RGIII seems like he can run against just anyone (as long as
he slides and keeps his head from getting rung) and Pierre-Paul can dish all
the warning he’d like but RGIII and Alfred Morris will kill the Giants on the
ground, an area of weakness for them. Then again, they didn’t seem too phased
by San Francisco’s run game a week ago. At any rate, they’re the favorites in
this game and as a result are most likely going to lose. I’m counting on the
Redskins’ rushing attack to set the tone early and often.
Redskins
Jets at Patriots
The dynamic here is so simple, it jumps off the screen
like a mike blitz. The Jets ran shod on Indy’s awful run defense and it set the
tone for them to win. The Patriots lost a very tough game against one of the
best defenses in the league that not only shut down their run game but gave
Brady nowhere to pass the ball on most downs. This is a bad situation for the
Jets to be in coming off their win, lined up behind the cue ball with Belichick
staring them down. These bad beans will eventually spell doom for them in
Foxborough. I don’t envy Sanchez this weekend.
Patriots
Jaguars at Raiders
When I picked against the Raiders last week, they nearly
pulled off the monumental upset of the Falcons in Atlanta, picking off Matty
Ice three times in the first half after not having picked anyone off all
season! So by that logic, I ought to pick against them every week, no? No. The
Jaguars are probably the only team where it might be safe (emphasis on the
might) to say the Raiders are a lock to win. The Raiders haven’t been nearly as
bad as their record or their blowouts have indicated. They’ve lead or been tied
or trailed by a few points at halftime in every game this year before blowing
it in the 3rd quarter. The Jags have been even worse coming out of
halftime and the Raider running game behind McFadden should get the job done in
closing this one out. It’s possible that the Raider defense is turning the
corner finally in getting pressure on the QB as evidenced by their impressive
performance on the road last week against Atlanta’s explosive offense. The Jags
defense isn’t much of a test for the Raider offense even if it does go off but
it’ll be an opportunity to gauge them anyway. Then there’s the possibility the
Raiders blow it anyway.
RRAAAIIDERRSS
Steelers at
Bengals
The Steelers are having a very pedestrian year. Their
defense is not nearly as good as they’ve been in past years and their running
game is dinged up and ineffective. This has drastically altered the team’s
identity, turning it into a passing offense that looks to outscore their
opponents rather than grind it out. Lucky for them they draw a date with the
Bengals who are looking very streaky at this point... they win three straight
and look like they’ve turned the corner, then lose back to back games to Miami
at home and the previously winless Browns in Cleveland. Which Bengals team
shows up? The Steelers hope the recent trend continues. However, I’m convinced
that playing at home against division rival and previously anointed
monkey-on-the-back Steelers, the Bengals come out strong running the ball well
and Dalton making smart, big throws.
Bengals
Lions at Bears
You never know with these Monday Night NFC North games
but how can you bet against the Bears at this point? They were embarrassed in a
similar spot earlier this season by the Packers but that was in Green Bay and
that was, well, the Packers. The Lions come in being one of the bigger
underachievers this season (although they beat a very uninspiring Eagles team
in dramatic fashion) due largely to not having an effective running game,
porous defense and not many receiving weapons outside of Megatron (and
sometimes Burleson) for frustrated stud QB Matthew Stafford. The Bears feast on
QBs with limited options and no running game to back them up. On the other side
of the ball, I just can’t figure out who the Lions will use to stop Brandon
Marshall. And if Matt Forte is on point, this game is a wrap. Which I think it
will be.
Da Bears
Dig it.
No comments:
Post a Comment