Saturday, June 1, 2013

2013 Stanley Cup Conference Finals

Three series went exactly as expected... the fourth went nothing even close to it. 

Now, it's only fitting that we have the past four champions left in the field and set to battle for the honor of lifting Lord Stanley's cup. This is puckhead territory so if you don't know nothin bout nothin, find your way out because things are about to get FUN.

Eastern Conference

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (1) VS. BOSTON BRUINS (4)
The Penguins, as expected, steamrolled Ottawa with too much star power and Vokoun getting in a groove with a shiny 1.85 GAA stopping 94% of the shots he’s seeing. They look locked and ready. The Rangers never really showed up for their series with the Bruins. Whatever clicked for Boston late in Game 7 against the Leafs certainly awoke one of the Cup’s most serious contenders and it showed in how dominating they were against a hapless Rangers squad, that were so bad, they benched their highest paid player. Now we get the Conference Finals matchup most of us were expecting before the playoffs started.

The first thing that jumps out at me is that we have the two highest scoring teams in the postseason in Pittsburgh and Boston. What’s really scary about Pittsburgh and their better-than four goals a game average right now is that they still haven’t really played all that well in terms of controlling the puck, standing up opposing rushes at the blue line and have been outshot nearly every game so far. The fact they’ve somehow still outscored every other team in the field goes to show just how much firepower the Pens really have.  Not that Boston should be overlooked in this regard; their 38 goals are second only to Pittsburgh’s 47. The one area where this disparity will show the most advantage to Pittsburgh is on the power play where their immense star power up front is going to really test Rask who has been great when good and awful when bad.

The Bruins still maintain an edge on defense where the likes of Chara and the rookie Krug (who has literally come out of nowhere to post five points in five games) give them skill on the blue line. They also maintain a more subtle advantage in puck possession where they have understated speed and intensity in gaining the zone and putting shots on net (they’ve shot the puck more than any other team in the playoffs and it isn’t even close). The Penguins are frighteningly efficient (12% of shots go in!) and while the B’s have the superior penalty kill (especially with the return of Redden and Ference on the blue line), it’s still an area of concern as they haven’t looked good up to this point this postseason and the explosive Penguin power play is coming to town.

I hate to pick against Boston for a second straight series. The Rangers had no business in this round anyway and I should have known better than to pick against Boston to begin with. I wonder if the Penguins finally play up to their expectations when they added Morrow and Iginla earlier this season. The Bruins did acquire longtime Penguins legend Jaromir Jagr although he hasn’t done much in the playoffs. If this series is played mostly at even strength and Rask can stay big in net, I don’t see why the Bruins don’t go to the finals. If they spend a ton of time in the box, that isn’t likely to happen. The Penguins ran the table on the B’s during the regular season taking all three contests (although all three were decided by one goal). Either way, it’s going deep into the six or seven game territory.

This may be the toughest call yet.

Bruins in 7


Western Conference

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (1) VS. LOS ANGELES KINGS (5)
The Blackhawks had a much tougher time with the Red Wings than most “experts” had expected. It took the Hawks seven games, a spirited comeback from down three games to one and even overtime in the decisive tilt in order to get rid of their long time fierce rivals. The Kings also squeaked by their second round opponent in what was also a heated rivalry that went seven games. Five of the seven games were decided by a single goal and were it not for an incredible late flurry in game 2 where the Kings protected home ice and forced the Sharks into a 2-0 hole that took all of seven games to almost get out of, who knows how this series would have ended. Like the Hawks/Wings series, it really came down to the very end of it for one to move on and one to stay home.

Both teams now face opponents drastically different than their last round foes. In Chicago’s case, they now face a team that isn’t just fast and energetic like the young Red Wings whose third and fourth lines maybe made the most noise of all. Whereas Detroit had been giving up more goals than nearly any other team in the playoffs (and not due to the goaltending as Howard was absolutely stellar), LA’s strength lies in clogging up the lanes with big bodies and making entry into their own zone infuriatingly difficult. Just ask San Jose who could muster only 11 goals all series against Quick and Co. In LA, Chicago now faces a team that can buckle down with a lead and make it incredibly difficult to climb back into games… something they took for granted with the inspired but undisciplined play of the Red Wings who not only routinely gave up leads but also gave up the most important lead of all: three games to one and even more shockingly disturbing for the Wings, a 3-1 lead in the third period of Game 6 at home in Detroit. The Hawks should not look for LA to do anything like that.

That said, the Kings are going to find that the Hawks are an entirely different animal altogether than the Sharks were. The Hawks are far more explosive offensively, have four lines that can score at an elite level, loads of offensive skill on the blue line, plenty of big bodies themselves and a superior penalty kill than either the Blues or the Sharks. Crawford is about as tough as Niemi and won’t be tested as often as he was against the Wings who are more of an offensive side than the Kings are. The disparity in their offensive games is really going to be showcased here as the Blackhawks are going to be able to put the puck in the net more often than the Kings will be regardless of how good Quick can be. In fact, the most I think we can fairly expect of him is to limit the Blackhawks to about the same production as Howard had and that still yielded 15 goals.
  
The key in this series will be how the Kings play when trailing. They will need to consistently jump out in front and therefore play their game which is at its best with a lead. The Hawks don’t melt down often (if at all) and are one of the handful of teams in the NHL that can play with nearly any deficit due to the likes of Kane, Toews, Sharp and Hossa having the ability to put the puck past any goaltender on any given night. Repeating as Lord Stanley’s champion is one of the toughest things to do and more so in this era than in any other. The Sharks gave the Kings a real test but the Blackhawks will knock them out and probably win the whole thing.

Blackhawks in 6



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