Eastern
Conference
MIAMI HEAT (1)
VS. INDIANA PACERS (3)
Hey, I don’t
mind being wrong especially if I was fairly sure I would be lol I wasn’t
hedging my bets either though when I admitted the Pacers were highly likely to
frustrate the Knicks into relying entirely on Melo to win. I knew the only
thing that would get the Knicks to the next round was if JR Smith showed up
which he did not. The Knicks were still very close to sending it to a game 7 at
MSG and that would have almost ensured them the series. Unfortunately, they are
almost as sad a story as the team in Brooklyn and that wasn’t going to get them
anywhere against a team as anti-climatically disciplined as the Pacers.
The Heat on the
other hand dispatched the Bulls with what, for long stretches, looked
effortless. The Bulls are one hell of a courageous group and raced out to an
impressive greeting in game 1 getting after it with great energy and effort but
were really up against it the rest of the way. The Heat, truly, are yet to be
tested.
So has that test
arrived? There is no doubt that the Pacers are bringing the same (if not more
intense) defensive energy and physicality as did the Bulls. However, they’re
also bringing a more rounded out and effective offensive game as well with the
ability to score buckets from all sorts of sources. Vogel’s system gives equal
looks to Hill and George on the perimeter, Hibbert down-low and West
everywhere. Now that Stevenson is getting routine looks too, it’s really a
crapshoot as to who might hurt you. And it still won’t be enough. Look, I hate
to pick against the Pacers after I did last round and don’t mean to discredit
what they’ve done so far or are capable of but I think that they still won’t
have the scoring to beat the Heat. They blitzed them pretty hard last year and
looked like they were ready to unseed them when they took that 2-1 lead but the
Heat gutted it out. The reason they could is the same reason they will again.
The Knicks posed almost no defensive resistance and the series was really a
quarter away from a game 7 where the entire outcome of the series would have
been different. The Heat play top tier team defense and whoever LeBron covers
probably won’t be going off and that’s likely Paul George. In addition, the
Knicks were only able to stay with the Pacers because of the combination of
their proclivity for the three point shot and the fact Indiana’s perimeter D is
probably their only weakness. Against the likes of Ray Allen, Shane Battier,
Mike Miller and all the other shooters the Heat like to run through the wings
for dishes from LeBron and Wade… that’s bad.
The Pacers are
going to have to steal one in Miami. There’s an offensive firepower disparity
here and it would take a truly focused and inspired effort by Indiana to keep
up and take four games first. I’m just not betting on it.
Heat in 6
Western
Conference
SAN ANTONIO
SPURS (2) VS. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (5)
Again, I won’t
be ashamed of having picked the Warriors to get past the Spurs as a) the
Warriors are my team and b) they could have. Ultimately, they were too banged
up at their most key positions and it was clear by the middle of the series
that Curry’s explosiveness was MIA making it much easier for defensive
standouts Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard to chase him through any and all
screens. Bogut was all messed up and, despite logging some minutes, Lee was
hardly himself. For the Spurs, they still were very tentatively in charge of
the series as it went on and had to escape some hairy situations with veteran
badassery from Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. For long stretches, their shooting
was abysmal and their half court offense void of second chance opportunities.
Which doesn’t
bode well for them because although Golden State is underrated defensively, the
Grizzlies are not; they’re widely considered top three in the league
defensively if not the best. The Thunder, like the Bulls, were hardly the test
we really wanted to see Memphis have because without Westbrook that was an
entirely different looking Thunder. Suddenly, there was no flow to their
offense, just everyone standing around watching Durant take the ball from the
perimeter and try to work his way in against the beef jerky of defenses. As Sir
Charles would say: “He can’t go one on five and win.” That said, Memphis still
looked mighty impressive. They made sure they held their foot on OKC’s throat
after, much like the Bulls did with the Heat, they took a blitzkrieg 1-0 lead
in the series making everyone doubt for a moment. Then there was no doubt.
Memphis plays championship defense, hustle like it’s the last day of their
collective lives, have the best two bigs tandem in the NBA in Gasol and Zebo,
have a point guard in Mike Conley who might finally get the props he deserves
as one of the best in the league and are playing like they are ready to move to
the next level.
And that is
precisely what they’re going to do. Who doesn’t wish they had that textbook
trajectory fall right into place like that? The Grizzlies made the move to
Memphis, retooled and re-invented their identity, made some shrewd wheeling and
dealing (how you like that Gasol for Gasol trade now, Lakeshow? lol) and worked
towards becoming a perennial playoff team. They got there, got bounced and
learned their lessons. Now their veteran core knows what it takes, play with a
pro calm and top tier chemistry. That along with the measurables (their elite
defense, domination of the boards and old school, grind low-post offense) is
the perfect formula for beating the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.
The Warriors
posed issues for the Spurs on the boards even with Lee’s relative absence from
the series and Bogut’s reduced mobility. Where the Spurs had the most trouble
was in second chance points where they would go long stretches without being
able to get offensive rebounds to continue possessions beyond the first look in
a sequence. Undersized but energetic power forward Carl Landry was killing
them. Memphis is a better rebounding team than the Warriors even when healthy.
Everybody is active on the boards and Zebo makes a living on offensive
rebounds. Also of concern for the Spurs is that while Bogut, Ezeli and Biedrins
don’t have a shot, Gasol and Zebo can kill you from range the same way that
Duncan can.
This series is
going to be a low scoring bruiser. I’ll be looking for how the Grizzlies bottle
up Tony Parker who was too quick for the Warriors to defend. I expect Tony
Allen to get that job. It’ll be interesting also how San Antonio’s role guys
like Green, Leonard and Neal are able to contribute offensively when the going
gets tough for the Big Three. On the other end of the court, Conley’s continued
maturation into an elite point guard is going to show up when he calmly paces
the Grizz into consistently putting up points after stops by maintaining the
flow through their bigs. Gasol and Zebo are in for some big games.
Grizzlies in 6
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