2013 Stanley Cup Finals

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (1) VS. BOSTON BRUINS (4)

I'm throwing all stats out the window on this one. We're in store for what's probably going to be one of the better Stanley Cup Final series we've had in recent memory. Two Original Six juggernauts that have stampeded through this post season save a single test each. The similarities in each team's runs are uncanny. For the Bruins, with the exception of a two game slide in the first round in which they relinquished a 3-1 series lead and nearly were eliminated by the Leafs, have otherwise been absolutely dominant dispatching of both the Rangers and the Penguins in just one game over the minimum. The Hawks have also been utterly dominant with the exception of a three game stretch against the Wings where they were outscored 9-2 and were nearly eliminated. 

For the Blackhawks to be triumphant, they're going to have to get through Boston's top rate defense. The fact the Hawks score a ton will certainly help them but Pittsburgh thought so too and they couldn't get anything going against Boston in the neutral zone or on attack until it was far too late. What's going for the Hawks is that they're ridiculously hot right now. Even after LA stabilized in the last tilt and started to resemble the team that won it all last year, the Hawks were so on fire, they managed to outlast them courtesy of a Patrick Kane hat trick. With the top lines of Chicago getting goin' at the right time, Boston knows it's in for a dogfight. 

The Bruins have a lot going for them, too. They are getting a very pleasant surprise out of goal as Rask has been channeling his inner Tim Thomas and their defense is just giving everybody fits. Their top forwards are not only legitimate scorers (Krejci and Marchand have been tearing up the sheet) but also imposing, pesky and defensively stout. And here's a fun bit: they have been getting a boatload of production from the blueline, too.

The advantages on paper go to the Blackhawks, honestly. Indeed, the Hawks have more scoring depth. Their top end forwards are "more" elite. If one of these teams has the firepower to make a difference on the power play against two of the finest penalty kill crews in the league, it would be the Hawks. They have a hot goaltender. They also get home ice advantage. 

But I did say I'd toss the "paper" out. The Bruins are going to win the Stanley Cup again and it'll be because, as the old adage likes to remind us, defense wins championships. Their blueliners play elite defense. Their forwards play elite defense. Their goaltender has been playing probably the most elite defense of all. The Hawks dealt with a pesky, resilient bunch in the Red Wings and a big, strong bunch in the Kings. Combine those two traits and you have the pesky, resilient, big bodies of the Bruins.

A couple of weeks ago, I was convinced the Blackhawks were going to win the whole thing. That was until I watched Boston play Pittsburgh. Err... that was until I watched Boston sweep Pittsburgh. Everyone's picking Chicago in this one; they were the trending pick all regular season, after all, especially after that torrid start. I've even seen it called as quickly as five games. I disagree. 

Bruins in 6

2013 NBA Finals

So it comes to this.

MIAMI HEAT (1) VS. SAN ANTONIO SPURS (2)

For stretches of the season, this was the match up that seemed most likely to happen. The Spurs lost the top position in the West near the end of the year when the Oklahoma City Thunder made a nice push to grab the one seed but did little with it when Russell Westbrook went down. Otherwise, it's arguable that, like you'd expect in a championship series, the best two teams have made it to the very end.

There are sneaky match ups galore to be had here and plenty of questions. How will Kawhi Leonard deal with LeBron? Will the Heat guards be able to slow down Parker? Will Miami's questionable perimeter defense struggle against San Antonio's three point shot and, conversely, will San Antonio's stellar perimeter defense shut down an integral part of Miami's game, the dish and pop that makes Ray Allen, Shane Battier, and Mike Miller so effective? Will Bosh come up big now that he faces big men in TD21 and Tiago Splitter that are not nearly as physical and abusive as Hibbert and West? Will Pops outcoach Spoelstra? Where is Dwayne Wade?

First things first. As you've probably been reading all over the internet and hearing all across radio stations and TV shows for the past few days, the match up everybody can't wait to see is how San Antonio's best pure defender, Kawhi Leonard, will deal with arguably the best basketball player on the planet. Truth is, the Big Three of the Heat have really been reduced to the 'Bron show but that has been mostly due to a banged up Wade and a nullified Bosh (Indiana was about as physically taxing as any team can possibly get). That is likely to change in the finals; yet there's very little doubt that the Heat will win or lose depending on how LeBron commands the games, especially down the stretch. Leonard is going to have to pick his spots in going with LeBron to the hoop and not pick up too many fouls though the task of keeping him to the outside may also backfire as LeBron has developed a pretty good shot to go with his freakish physical skills. Down low on the post, I have to give the edge to LeBron as he will still manage to outmuscle the deceptively tough Leonard who had harassed every assignment so far in the playoffs with his most masterful work having come against the elite guards of Golden State. That said, neither of those guys were physical specimens so his size, length and quickness was too dominating. Memphis had nobody who could score at an elite level so his defense effectively shut down any and all offense outside of their bigs which was a big reason why Memphis were handily dispatched. Leonard will do a n impressive job on LeBron, no doubt, but it won't be close to enough. It might shave a little off his production and frustrate him into jacking up some jumpshots but if those start dropping, you can pretty much forget about the Spurs winning the championship.

The Spurs live and die with Tony Parker. Games where Parker was off (he had quite a handful of low field goal % shooting nights actually and the Spurs looked either vulnerable or were beat outright), it was evident that the game had to then run through Duncan in the low post where he often was able to get it going but in the twilight of his career, it won't be enough to win four games. Duncan is at his best now as a complement to Parker and not the other way around. The trick for Miami will be to play Parker physical and stay with him although that's a lot to ask because TP might be the quickest guard in the league (and Memphis who were supposed to be physical and great defensively, failed at this). Chalmers is pretty physical, though and I wouldn't be surprised if LeBron even gets that assignment in late game situations as he is Miami's best overall defender. Parker will be the leading scorer for the Spurs and his ability to draw double teams and dish out to the perimeter will be a very key component of this series.

Speaking of which, Miami has been shredded by three point shooting teams and the Spurs are one of those teams. Forget the Memphis series for a moment (that was about as definitive a match up fail as there ever is in pro sports, by the way) and take a look at the series against the Warriors. The Spurs took away the one thing that made the Warriors a threat to make a run at the finals; their three point game. Conversely, they hit threes with ease in all their wins because the Warriors were chasing the swing around the perimeter and giving up too many open looks. This spells doom for the Heat if they are a) unable to get back on the perimeter on the dish and swing and b) if they get eaten up on the outside by the very active Leonard, Green and Neal who have been harassing jumpshooters all postseason. The perimeter game does favor San Antonio in this regard but note this: only in terms of scheme and execution. Give Pops a ton of credit here. I wouldn't count against Miami's outside shot, exactly. In fact, if they get open looks, the Spurs are in a heap of trouble because, like Golden State, they can definitely hit them and if Ray Allen continues to shoot the way he has in the latter parts of the Indiana series where he seemed to be getting his range back, the Heat are going to rain threes on the Spurs. They have the better pure shooters. San Antonio has the better perimeter game as a team.

Down in the paint, watch for Bosh to finally get untracked. He is an undersized, agile big man with range (what's up with dino jr. jacking up the three point shot anyway? I mean, he's making them but wtf? lol) and against active, tenacious bigs like David West and Roy Hibbert, he was as good as useless out there. There were stretches where you'd see him active in the paint, trying to get contact and be physical but in the end all he could resort to doing was flopping and missing and flopping. Duncan still has game but he is not as quick as he used to be and Tiago Splitter can be dominated with Bosh's skillset of taking the ball at midrange and working. I expect Bosh to have a much better series than he did in the last one. What doomed Memphis was the fact their bigs were more traditional bigs, slow, powerful and living closer to the rim. That isn't Bosh's game and it'll give the Spurs a challenge they haven't really faced yet this postseason (with the exception of Carl Landry who, surprisingly, was effective because he possesses much of the same skillset as Bosh albeit not at an elite level).

Dwayne Wade is having the lowest postseason production of his career. Truth be told, that may just mean he's due and that would really suck for San Antonio as that suddenly gives them two explosive bodies to cover and they only really have one Kawhi Leonard. The next best thing the Spurs can throw at a strong, explosive scoring guard is Danny Green and while he is definitely capable (he frustrated the hell out of Curry when he was on him), I still have to give the advantage to Wade. This of course all hinges on Wade's health and if he's really over it (as it seemed with 21 points and 9 boards in the final and deciding game of the Pacers series), he's going to be the factor that puts this in Miami's favor. I'm going to go ahead and throw Manu Ginobili in this discussion; if the Spurs' long time stud wing man is able to get out of his postseason funk and produce the way he has in the past, it'll have the same effect as it would if Wade returned to form. Both of these guards are out of sorts although it is arguable that Manu is no longer the piece in the system that he used to be as Kawhi Leonard now has become the third option in the offense and has responded with solid offensive games. Manu still possesses the critical clutch outside shot and is the sort of guy that can literally go 0-12 in the game and then drop a three in the fourth quarter of a close game to turn a tide.

In the end, and I can't stress this enough, the series is going the distance. Regardless of who wins out, this isn't something that is going to be determined in four or five games. Six? Maybe. Seven, more likely. Miami's home court advantage is significant especially if the series goes long. Much is being made of how handily San Antonio dispatched of Memphis but remember that the Grizzlies were a team that couldn't score in bunches anyway and, while physical and defensive minded, were not explosive enough to stay with Parker when they needed to. The Grizzly series almost tells us nothing about what the Spurs are going to do in this one. The Heat can score a lot easier than the Grizzlies ever could and survived a series with a Pacer team that was balanced, physical and as defensively tough as the Grizz but with much more offensive ability. The Heat had the tougher test, outlasted it and to me, are the favorites here.

Heat in 7

Dig it.

2013 Stanley Cup Conference Finals

Three series went exactly as expected... the fourth went nothing even close to it. 

Now, it's only fitting that we have the past four champions left in the field and set to battle for the honor of lifting Lord Stanley's cup. This is puckhead territory so if you don't know nothin bout nothin, find your way out because things are about to get FUN.

Eastern Conference

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (1) VS. BOSTON BRUINS (4)

The Penguins, as expected, steamrolled Ottawa with too much star power and Vokoun getting in a groove with a shiny 1.85 GAA stopping 94% of the shots he’s seeing. They look locked and ready. The Rangers never really showed up for their series with the Bruins. Whatever clicked for Boston late in Game 7 against the Leafs certainly awoke one of the Cup’s most serious contenders and it showed in how dominating they were against a hapless Rangers squad, that were so bad, they benched their highest paid player. Now we get the Conference Finals matchup most of us were expecting before the playoffs started.

The first thing that jumps out at me is that we have the two highest scoring teams in the postseason in Pittsburgh and Boston. What’s really scary about Pittsburgh and their better-than four goals a game average right now is that they still haven’t really played all that well in terms of controlling the puck, standing up opposing rushes at the blue line and have been outshot nearly every game so far. The fact they’ve somehow still outscored every other team in the field goes to show just how much firepower the Pens really have.  Not that Boston should be overlooked in this regard; their 38 goals are second only to Pittsburgh’s 47. The one area where this disparity will show the most advantage to Pittsburgh is on the power play where their immense star power up front is going to really test Rask who has been great when good and awful when bad.

The Bruins still maintain an edge on defense where the likes of Chara and the rookie Krug (who has literally come out of nowhere to post five points in five games) give them skill on the blue line. They also maintain a more subtle advantage in puck possession where they have understated speed and intensity in gaining the zone and putting shots on net (they’ve shot the puck more than any other team in the playoffs and it isn’t even close). The Penguins are frighteningly efficient (12% of shots go in!) and while the B’s have the superior penalty kill (especially with the return of Redden and Ference on the blue line), it’s still an area of concern as they haven’t looked good up to this point this postseason and the explosive Penguin power play is coming to town.

I hate to pick against Boston for a second straight series. The Rangers had no business in this round anyway and I should have known better than to pick against Boston to begin with. I wonder if the Penguins finally play up to their expectations when they added Morrow and Iginla earlier this season. The Bruins did acquire longtime Penguins legend Jaromir Jagr although he hasn’t done much in the playoffs. If this series is played mostly at even strength and Rask can stay big in net, I don’t see why the Bruins don’t go to the finals. If they spend a ton of time in the box, that isn’t likely to happen. The Penguins ran the table on the B’s during the regular season taking all three contests (although all three were decided by one goal). Either way, it’s going deep into the six or seven game territory.

This may be the toughest call yet.

Bruins in 7

Western Conference

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (1) VS. LOS ANGELES KINGS (5)

The Blackhawks had a much tougher time with the Red Wings than most “experts” had expected. It took the Hawks seven games, a spirited comeback from down three games to one and even overtime in the decisive tilt in order to get rid of their long time fierce rivals. The Kings also squeaked by their second round opponent in what was also a heated rivalry that went seven games. Five of the seven games were decided by a single goal and were it not for an incredible late flurry in game 2 where the Kings protected home ice and forced the Sharks into a 2-0 hole that took all of seven games to almost get out of, who knows how this series would have ended. Like the Hawks/Wings series, it really came down to the very end of it for one to move on and one to stay home.

Both teams now face opponents drastically different than their last round foes. In Chicago’s case, they now face a team that isn’t just fast and energetic like the young Red Wings whose third and fourth lines maybe made the most noise of all. Whereas Detroit had been giving up more goals than nearly any other team in the playoffs (and not due to the goaltending as Howard was absolutely stellar), LA’s strength lies in clogging up the lanes with big bodies and making entry into their own zone infuriatingly difficult. Just ask San Jose who could muster only 11 goals all series against Quick and Co. In LA, Chicago now faces a team that can buckle down with a lead and make it incredibly difficult to climb back into games… something they took for granted with the inspired but undisciplined play of the Red Wings who not only routinely gave up leads but also gave up the most important lead of all: three games to one and even more shockingly disturbing for the Wings, a 3-1 lead in the third period of Game 6 at home in Detroit. The Hawks should not look for LA to do anything like that.

That said, the Kings are going to find that the Hawks are an entirely different animal altogether than the Sharks were. The Hawks are far more explosive offensively, have four lines that can score at an elite level, loads of offensive skill on the blue line, plenty of big bodies themselves and a superior penalty kill than either the Blues or the Sharks. Crawford is about as tough as Niemi and won’t be tested as often as he was against the Wings who are more of an offensive side than the Kings are. The disparity in their offensive games is really going to be showcased here as the Blackhawks are going to be able to put the puck in the net more often than the Kings will be regardless of how good Quick can be. In fact, the most I think we can fairly expect of him is to limit the Blackhawks to about the same production as Howard had and that still yielded 15 goals.

  

The key in this series will be how the Kings play when trailing. They will need to consistently jump out in front and therefore play their game which is at its best with a lead. The Hawks don’t melt down often (if at all) and are one of the handful of teams in the NHL that can play with nearly any deficit due to the likes of Kane, Toews, Sharp and Hossa having the ability to put the puck past any goaltender on any given night. Repeating as Lord Stanley’s champion is one of the toughest things to do and more so in this era than in any other. The Sharks gave the Kings a real test but the Blackhawks will knock them out and probably win the whole thing.

Blackhawks in 6

Dig it.

2013 NBA Playoffs Conference Finals

Eastern Conference

MIAMI HEAT (1) VS. INDIANA PACERS (3)

Hey, I don’t mind being wrong especially if I was fairly sure I would be lol I wasn’t hedging my bets either though when I admitted the Pacers were highly likely to frustrate the Knicks into relying entirely on Melo to win. I knew the only thing that would get the Knicks to the next round was if JR Smith showed up which he did not. The Knicks were still very close to sending it to a game 7 at MSG and that would have almost ensured them the series. Unfortunately, they are almost as sad a story as the team in Brooklyn and that wasn’t going to get them anywhere against a team as anti-climatically disciplined as the Pacers.

The Heat on the other hand dispatched the Bulls with what, for long stretches, looked effortless. The Bulls are one hell of a courageous group and raced out to an impressive greeting in game 1 getting after it with great energy and effort but were really up against it the rest of the way. The Heat, truly, are yet to be tested.

So has that test arrived? There is no doubt that the Pacers are bringing the same (if not more intense) defensive energy and physicality as did the Bulls. However, they’re also bringing a more rounded out and effective offensive game as well with the ability to score buckets from all sorts of sources. Vogel’s system gives equal looks to Hill and George on the perimeter, Hibbert down-low and West everywhere. Now that Stevenson is getting routine looks too, it’s really a crapshoot as to who might hurt you. And it still won’t be enough. Look, I hate to pick against the Pacers after I did last round and don’t mean to discredit what they’ve done so far or are capable of but I think that they still won’t have the scoring to beat the Heat. They blitzed them pretty hard last year and looked like they were ready to unseed them when they took that 2-1 lead but the Heat gutted it out. The reason they could is the same reason they will again. The Knicks posed almost no defensive resistance and the series was really a quarter away from a game 7 where the entire outcome of the series would have been different. The Heat play top tier team defense and whoever LeBron covers probably won’t be going off and that’s likely Paul George. In addition, the Knicks were only able to stay with the Pacers because of the combination of their proclivity for the three point shot and the fact Indiana’s perimeter D is probably their only weakness. Against the likes of Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Mike Miller and all the other shooters the Heat like to run through the wings for dishes from LeBron and Wade… that’s bad.

The Pacers are going to have to steal one in Miami. There’s an offensive firepower disparity here and it would take a truly focused and inspired effort by Indiana to keep up and take four games first. I’m just not betting on it.

Heat in 6

Western Conference

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (2) VS. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (5)

Again, I won’t be ashamed of having picked the Warriors to get past the Spurs as a) the Warriors are my team and b) they could have. Ultimately, they were too banged up at their most key positions and it was clear by the middle of the series that Curry’s explosiveness was MIA making it much easier for defensive standouts Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard to chase him through any and all screens. Bogut was all messed up and, despite logging some minutes, Lee was hardly himself. For the Spurs, they still were very tentatively in charge of the series as it went on and had to escape some hairy situations with veteran badassery from Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. For long stretches, their shooting was abysmal and their half court offense void of second chance opportunities.

Which doesn’t bode well for them because although Golden State is underrated defensively, the Grizzlies are not; they’re widely considered top three in the league defensively if not the best. The Thunder, like the Bulls, were hardly the test we really wanted to see Memphis have because without Westbrook that was an entirely different looking Thunder. Suddenly, there was no flow to their offense, just everyone standing around watching Durant take the ball from the perimeter and try to work his way in against the beef jerky of defenses. As Sir Charles would say: “He can’t go one on five and win.” That said, Memphis still looked mighty impressive. They made sure they held their foot on OKC’s throat after, much like the Bulls did with the Heat, they took a blitzkrieg 1-0 lead in the series making everyone doubt for a moment. Then there was no doubt. Memphis plays championship defense, hustle like it’s the last day of their collective lives, have the best two bigs tandem in the NBA in Gasol and Zebo, have a point guard in Mike Conley who might finally get the props he deserves as one of the best in the league and are playing like they are ready to move to the next level.

And that is precisely what they’re going to do. Who doesn’t wish they had that textbook trajectory fall right into place like that? The Grizzlies made the move to Memphis, retooled and re-invented their identity, made some shrewd wheeling and dealing (how you like that Gasol for Gasol trade now, Lakeshow? lol) and worked towards becoming a perennial playoff team. They got there, got bounced and learned their lessons. Now their veteran core knows what it takes, play with a pro calm and top tier chemistry. That along with the measurables (their elite defense, domination of the boards and old school, grind low-post offense) is the perfect formula for beating the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.

The Warriors posed issues for the Spurs on the boards even with Lee’s relative absence from the series and Bogut’s reduced mobility. Where the Spurs had the most trouble was in second chance points where they would go long stretches without being able to get offensive rebounds to continue possessions beyond the first look in a sequence. Undersized but energetic power forward Carl Landry was killing them. Memphis is a better rebounding team than the Warriors even when healthy. Everybody is active on the boards and Zebo makes a living on offensive rebounds. Also of concern for the Spurs is that while Bogut, Ezeli and Biedrins don’t have a shot, Gasol and Zebo can kill you from range the same way that Duncan can.

This series is going to be a low scoring bruiser. I’ll be looking for how the Grizzlies bottle up Tony Parker who was too quick for the Warriors to defend. I expect Tony Allen to get that job. It’ll be interesting also how San Antonio’s role guys like Green, Leonard and Neal are able to contribute offensively when the going gets tough for the Big Three. On the other end of the court, Conley’s continued maturation into an elite point guard is going to show up when he calmly paces the Grizz into consistently putting up points after stops by maintaining the flow through their bigs. Gasol and Zebo are in for some big games.

Grizzlies in 6

2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2

            So far, so good. The only real shocker from the first round was Ottawa’s dismantling of the Canadiens in five. Games get tougher to call as you travel deeper into the wilderness that is the Stanley Cup playoffs.

            And with that, we cease the yappin’ and get down to the slappin’.

Eastern Conference

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (1) VS. OTTAWA SENATORS (7)

Well I totally struck out on the Canadiens squeaking by Ottawa; hell, it wasn’t even close. After watching how confident Ottawa looked defensively and how easy it was to dominate a team that was built to be a bruising, rough draw, one has to wonder if they don’t actually have what it takes to frustrate the Pens into getting out of their game and being vulnerable too.

Yeah but no, Cinderellas are named such not because they look pretty in their sparkly getups but because the clock does eventually strike midnight and everything turns into pumpkins and mules. The Penguins are just too strong and are probably going to the finals; it would take an epic collapse for that not to happen. Or their goaltending to fail. So far, Vokoun has stepped in for the struggling Fleury and has been the hot hand but making a deep cup run without a sure thing in goal is a tall order. Even then, I still don’t know if the Sens have the firepower to keep up with Pittsburgh on the scoreboard. They’d need Craig Anderson to continue being a stud in goal for one as Pitts’ most notable strength is their ability to put the puck in the net from any line at any time. The Sens could benefit from using the Karlsson injury (at the skates of Matt Cooke, of course) to their mental advantage.

Pittsburgh are older, sluggish and have a questionable goaltending situation but their veteran gamesmanship, elite talent and depth should be enough to get to the next level.

Penguins in 6

BOSTON BRUINS (4) VS. NEW YORK RANGERS (6)

Instant classic. New York vs. Boston. Original Six. Haven’t battled in the postseason since 1973. Blue-collar, fresh-off grueling seven gamers, they get to get all up close and cozy here. The Rangers demolished the Caps in their clincher, an indicator that a) the edge they had going in (their grit and grind and epic goaltender) is going to be their calling card and b) that their offense might be waking up again as they try for a second straight Conference Finals appearance. While the Rangers ran away with it late in the series, the Bruins needed a total Leafs meltdown and a blown 4-1 lead in game seven to advance after losing both games five and six. They won’t pull that sort of comeback on Lundqvist who right now is likely the best keeper in the playoffs. And he’s on fire – two straight clean sheets. It also doesn’t help Boston that New York is getting some of its scoring done on its third and fourth lines and if their studs were to get untracked, it could get messy for Rask.

To their credit, the Bruins are tougher defensively and while Rask is shaky in goal in comparison to the dude across the pond, he might be stout enough to where he frustrates a Ranger attack that, at times this season, just couldn’t get the light to go on despite all their scoring talent. Nash still hasn’t gotten on the board, Richards has only a goal and Callahan barely got his first contribution in game seven. It isn’t for lack of effort as the shots have been there but it has been other guys stepping up. If the big horses wake up, watch out.

Rangers in 6

Western Conference

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (1) VS. DETROIT RED WINGS (7)

Oh this is every Hawks and Wings fan’s wet dream. We live for this rivalry so don’t let the seeding fool you; as deep, balanced and talented as the Blackhawks are, the Red Wings are going to show up to play. They were able to get past second seeded Anaheim by working hard up and down the lines and showing resolve in weathering several storms when it seemed the ice had completely tilted in favor of Anaheim. I may be a homer with this pick but make no mistake, the only way the Wings come out of this one is Howard must be huge in net (which he was against the Ducks for most of the series save a couple of defensive meltdowns in front of him that led to flurries of scores late in periods), they’re going to need the same balanced effort from all four lines in staying active and skating hard, and they’re going to need their studs Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Franzen to continue to be amazing.

That may be too much to ask. The Blackhawks top line is possibly the best in the NHL and they have more talented depth behind them than the Wings do. Crawford was kinda tested by Minnesota but their offensive firepower was not enough to really challenge him. Truthfully neither really is Detroit’s who are hardly the goal-scoring juggernaut we’re used to seeing but they do have at least two lines that can score at an elite level.

That may still be too much to ask. The Hawks owned the Wings this season in four head to head matches, winning all four albeit three of them in OT (two on shootouts). All three of the OTL’s were tightly contested and exciting games so it isn’t as though the Blackhawks have dominated them in the actual play on the ice (although the fourth loss was a 7-1 drubbing at home). My brain is telling me Chicago has this one locked up. But there’s no way I’m picking against my boys.

Red Wings in 7

LOS ANGELES KINGS (5)VS. SAN JOSE SHARKS (6)

The battle for the Golden State begins tonight. Anybody who’s been in California long enough, originally or transplanted, knows that for all intents and purposes Northern California and Southern California are separate entities politically, culturally and topographically. It is also no secret that each respective region’s populations have a disdain for the other in all matters sports-related. In other words, expect the Shark Tank to be bellowing the age-old warcry “BEAT LA!” every time the action calls for it.

As for the hockey itself, look for the Sharks who breezed through the first round to continue to revel in the first post-season in a long time where they are not saddled with the pressure of being favorites or contenders. This time around, in a shortened season that saw a transformation in their offensive identity after years of shot expectations, the Sharks made the playoffs at a modest six seeding and quietly dispatched of the Canucks in no time. The Canucks are a total wreck but the Sharks have to like this new role they find themselves in. On the other hand, the Kings are very squarely on the radar unlike last year when they shocked the world. The Kings and Sharks split the four head to head games this year with the home team always coming out on top meaning the Kings getting the head start in LA is huge and might dictate the pace of the series even if it goes the distance which I expect it to. The Kings are faster, more physical and will look to take advantage of San Jose’s history of folding when pushed around. However, San Jose is the tougher team defensively and is hard to beat at home. Both Quick and Niemi are going to be beast in net.

It'll come down to a couple of things. The Sharks are historically a team that when physically punked, get frustrated and don’t dig deep enough and as a result have never made it to the finals. The Kings are the champs and know how to push those kinds of buttons but have to be concerned about their own vulnerability in special teams situations and the matter of having only scored 12 goals against the Blues in a six gamer. The cup window is closing for some of San Jose's premier guys. Look for them to play with the urgency that'll give them the edge here.

Sharks in 7

DIG IT.

2013 NBA Playoffs Round 2

Round 2… FIGHT!

Eastern Conference

MIAMI HEAT (1) VS. CHICAGO BULLS (5)

The Nets are a trainwreck of epic wreckageness. How was it even possible for a team that well rostered to have been outplayed that badly by a Bulls team that was missing not only their best player but their second best scorer and their best outside shot? There’s no excuse for it (I am only miffed because I picked the Nets to win the series and the Bulls spoiled my perfect first round lol). Still, the real reason this happened is because the Bulls have so much more resolve, focus and are infinitely tougher. They were faced with an incredible challenge and they handled it. Big ups to Coach Thibodeau and his Bulls. Unfortunately for them, that is where the train will stop because they’re going to get slaughtered by the Heat in five. I don’t mean to be dismissive and I have a soft spot in my heart for the Bulls thanks to Michael but there’s just no way that the Heat, probably the best team in the game, are going to overlook or underhustle the way the Nets did. I’m going to give the Bulls a game only because their collective resolve is so strong but don’t be surprised if this is an outright sweep.

Heat in 5

NEW YORK KNICKS (2) VS. INDIANA PACERS (3)

We are in for a gritty battle. The Knicks have an obvious offensive edge with Melo and JR Smith able to go off for stretches where they are seemingly unstoppable. However, don’t overlook these Pacers who can irritate anybody with their ferocious defense and domination of the boards, able to then keep an opponent totally off balance… something we’ve seen New York very susceptible to; maybe even more so than any other team in the field. The Knicks survived the series with the Celtics largely due to the wild swings of their immense potential for firepower but not because of any manner of discipline or scoring balance. When JR Smith had to sit out a game to serve a suspension for being a bonehead, the Celtics turned the tide of the series and had the Knickerbockers wearing black and being ornery. No knock on the C’s who were spirited, if the Knicks found THEIR defense stifling and unsettling, wait til they get a load of Indy. The Pacers are actually fairly balanced offensively too with West, Hill and George able to put some buckets down when needed. I expect the Pacers to grind out some very tough games against the Knicks, frustrate their top threats and force somebody else to carry the load. If that happens more than three times, there’s a good chance that means the Knicks are staying in New York by next weekend. That said, I don’t think it happens that many times. I think the Knicks get lucky again and squeeze by because Melo drops 40 or something ridiculous in a critical tilt like game 5 or 6. Oh and there's a chance we spot an Amar'e and who knows what that means.

Knicks in 7

Western Conference

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (1) VS. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (5)

Hate to be the harbinger here but this series spells all sorts of trouble for OKC and I am not sure they’re going to get through it. This would have been a very difficult series for them anyway were Westbrook not out for the rest of the year but the prospect of having to beat Memphis four times without him is not very encouraging. Granted, this is a veteran playoff team now and Durant is the best player in the West so it isn’t like they’re going to get run out of any buildings. What ought to be noted, though, is that the Grizzlies made very quick work of the Clippers with four straight wins after a game 3 adjustment. The Grizz are capable of antagonizing and shorting a team’s rhythm with quick active guards and two elite big men who are studs at both ends of the court. They exposed Griffin’s lack of an offensive game even before the ankle was an issue and made the Clippers one dimensional even though they still had plenty of guards who could score. The Thunder on the other hand lost their most explosive guard and outside of Martin, have unproven and shaky offensive options. If the Thunder are forced to become one dimensional as a result of Memphis’ defense, are they going to be tough enough defensively to stop them from scoring? The Rockets gave them some trouble after Westbrook went down and they don’t even play defense. I’m really not sure the Thunder get through here.

Grizzlies in 6

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (2) VS. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (6)

Most folks are going to tell me that the Warriors don’t have a chance against the mighty Spurs machine that hasn’t missed the playoffs since I was in high school and which can plug n play anyone from DaJuan Blair to Gary Neal and win. Except, the Spurs have not been an elite playoff contender since half a decade ago, are led by a big three that is aging (despite Duncan and Parker’s fantastic regular seasons) and have been resting courtesy of a quick first round. For older teams, that is often said to be a good thing. However, when they’re about to tangle with what is essentially the complete opposite scenario, a very young Warriors team that is full of energy both intrinsically and because they are coming off of a crazy, intense series, that may not be a good thing. The Warriors are going to have to play disciplined and cannot afford to turn the ball over as much as they did against Denver or go cold from the field for long stretches as they often did in that series. Late in games, they’re going to have to stay poised and focused on fundamental game scenarios. The Nuggets were very forgiving. Popovich and the Spurs will not be. I believe that, even though the Spurs are a get up and down the court team, the Warriors are significantly more athletic and explosive especially if Jack and Barnes continue to play the way they have. Bogut will have his hands full with Duncan and will get an opportunity to really earn that paycheck. If Curry goes off (which is a matter of when and not if, really), watch out. They have a bit of swagger now that this young group has a series win under their belt. Bring on the Spurs.

Warriors in 7

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2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1

There is an age-old debate on whether Spring or Fall is the ultimate sports season (though Winter and Summer are hardly shabby if you are interested in more than just major league team sports). What I have found year after year, is that I am most enthralled by the Spring and for one simple reason: Playoffs. Lots of it.

As much as I love basketball, nothing quite matches the intensity of the NHL playoffs. There is just something about the Stanley Cup itself that inspires the play, inspires the bearding, ratchets the already breakneck, feverous pitch of a hockey game. And you know what, even with a shortened season (and maybe specifically because of one), we are about to have one heck of a playoff season.

Let’s get to it.

Eastern Conference

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (1) VS. NEW YORK ISLANDERS (8)

The rich get richer. The Penguins were already kicking butt with one of the most star-studded rosters around but adding Iginla, Morrow, and Jokinen made them just nasty. The real question will be whether they can form the sort of chemistry that is needed for a deep run at Lord Stanley’s eternal glory. As we know from the NBA’s Lakers, sometimes it’s just too much to ask with that many egos and mouths to feed. They certainly should not overlook the Islanders, who come in with a young core of players who have been growing together and have said chemistry. A hot goalie can do wonders in the playoffs and Evgeni Nabokov is a good one. If the Penguins sleep on these Islanders, it could make for a long series. Still, I think this is a lock.

Pens in 5

MONTREAL CANADIENS (2) VS. OTTAWA SENATORS (7)

This one’s kind of a double Cinderella story, honestly with both the Sens and Habs over exceeding all expectations to even be where they are. The Canadiens finished last place a year ago and while they’ve earned the seed, they’re still a mismatch for any of the conference’s elite teams if and when they run into them. In this round, though, they get a Senator’s team that isn’t even supposed to be in the playoffs really with all the injuries they endured at critical positions no less. The Sens are getting their defensive stud, Karlsson back at the right time which makes them dangerous because they’re playing with house money and no pressure as they weren’t even expected to have competed this well. They’ll grind and grind and put the pressure entirely on the Habs to justify and live up to their seeding and just might eek one out. This will be a great series between two teams just glad to be here. Love it.

Canadiens in 7

WASHINGTON CAPITALS (3) VS. NEW YORK RANGERS (6)

The Capitals really improved as the season went on after a fairly bland start. It obviously coincided with the coaching changes and as soon as Oates took over, we started to see Alex Ovechkin really take over and thrust himself into MVP talk. However, as solid as they are, the Rangers are in position to bump them off. With a goalie like Lundqvist, of course, that is entirely possible because he’s exactly the type of goalie that can will this team through the playoffs like he did last year when a scrappy Rangers team found its way to the conference finals. Will it be enough to get by the Caps? Not if they play listlessly as they’ve played most of this season. As much as I like what Ovie is doin over there in the capital, I have a feeling the Rangers figure it out and get through.

Rangers in 6

BOSTON BRUINS (4) VS. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (5)

Classic NHL match up between two marquis franchises. Unfortunately, it is also a mismatch despite what the seeding will tell you if the Bruins start playing the way they had been earlier in the season. They’re stumbling into the playoffs but were able to take three of four against these same Leafs during the regular season. They have all the components that they need: offensive production, elite defense, depth and of course a solid goalie. They draw divisional rivals that, although tough, don’t play particularly good defense and can be overmatched as Reimer will be under duress all game, every game. I think the Leafs might serve as the perfect first round opponent for Boston to get it going and try to carry some momentum deep in the playoffs.

Bruins in 5

Western Conference

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (1) VS. MINNESOTA WILD (8)

While it would be nice to see the Wild get it done against the Hawks by grinding those secondary lines into the boards and forcing them to work, I fear there’s just too much firepower on Chicago. They got off to a crazy hot start and rode the momentum into the top seed. The Wild are going to be strong in the years to come but it is quite the mismatch with injuries to key players. I don’t anticipate the Hawks getting bounced this early but don’t be surprised if their seeding is a mirage.

Hawks in 6

ANAHEIM DUCKS (2) VS. DETROIT REDWINGS (7)

You already know my pick; I wouldn’t dare pick the Ducks against my Wings after the number they pulled on us when the roles were reversed years ago and Babcock was their coach. However that isn’t the only motivation. Truly, the Wings pose a problem for the Ducks. They have the offensive firepower to score and although their defense is not as stout as it used to be with Lidstrom manning the blue line, the Ducks have limited star power up front beyond Getzlaf and Ryan. Even more alarming for them is that Detroit has played them very well this season taking two of three head to head and looked dominant in the two they did. The Wings are underdogs here and for good reason and will have to really rely on Howard, who has been their best player for stretches of this season when goals weren’t coming, to steal a couple games. That said, I’m still going with my team.

Wings in 6

VANCOUVER CANUCKS (3) VS. SAN JOSE SHARKS (6)

I’m not sold on the Canucks and it is mostly because I don’t trust their goaltending situation. They have decent enough even strength play to where they’ve earned their seed but they have many questions starting with who will play in goal and whether or not they’re tough enough to make a run. The Sharks retooled and changed their identity and, though streaky, are tough when they’re on. More importantly (and contrasted to the Canucks), Antti Niemi is the guy between the pipes and has been awesome. The Sharks slipped this year after years of being hyped and truly it's mostly because of their inconsistency. If they play like they play when they’re on, they’ll resemble the three seed here far more than the Canucks will.

Sharks in 6

ST. LOUIS BLUES (4) VS. LOS ANGELES KINGS (5)

I live in the L.A. metroplex and as a result have quite a few friends who are Kings fans whose ire I probably will draw at some point in these playoffs when I commit them to elimination. Whereas the Kings got ridiculously hot at exactly the precise time last year, they come into the playoffs now expected to win and without the element of surprise. They are still big, strong and a chore to grind with but then again so are the Blues whom they swept last year. I don’t know about you but I’m sensing a rivalry brewing and, seeing as how these two teams are young enough and deep enough to be in this sort of tangle for years to come, I’m excited. There’s a temptation to pick the Blues on account of sweet revenge. They’ve added some pieces and are older and wiser. But then again so are the Kings. This will be one of the best first round matchups and I’m thinking it goes the distance; I just don’t know if St. Louis is ready quite yet.

Kings in 7

As always, remember: I have no idea what I’m talking about.

Dig it.